Rafael Nadal is the betting favorite to beat Alex de Minaur at the 2024 ATP Barcelona tennis tournament. The tournament is also known as the 2024 Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell and it is a clay-court event that Nadal has won numerous times over the years. There is some question as to how well he will play this season, noting that his 38th birthday is looming and he has played very little over the last year. But his match will be a second-round match in the Barcelona draw and Nadal is priced at -138 (bet365), making him a small favorite in the contest. My Nadal vs de Minaur prediction is that this match will have over 22.5 games in it.
Schedule of Play: Right-click/Open in the New Tab to check match times: subject to change
Rafael Nadal vs Alex de Minaur Head-to-Head Series
These two players have a head-to-head series that dates back to 2018. The Nadal vs de Minaur h2h is 3-1 in favor of the Spaniard. Their match in Barcelona will be their first on clay. De Minaur did win the last meeting between these two players, which was an early-season hardcourt match in 2023. Nadal's wins all came between 2018 and 2020.
The Draw: Right-click/Open the link in a new tab for the draw for the 2024 Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell
Rafael Nadal's Recent Matches and Results
Nadal has few recent matches. In the first round in Barcelona, he defeated Flavio Cobolli with some ease, 6-2, 6-3. Nadal yielded just two break-point opportunities in the match. This is the only tour-level match that Nadal has played since ATP Brisbane early in the season.
Before Brisbane, did not play since the early months of 2023. Bettors looking to glean some insight from Nadal's recent matches will simply have to look at the win over Cobolli.
Nadal won the points 60-44 (which is a good ratio), he won 69% of his service points and 47% as a returner (which are both good rates), and he went 0-3 on aces to double faults. This latter stat should be a bit concerning as three double faults are a lot for a short match. Also, no aces could be taken to mean "no easy points." However, Nadal looks like he will be very tough to knock out of Barcelona.
Alex de Minaur's Recent Matches and Results
De Minaur was in Monaco last week to contest the Monte-Carlo Masters. He did well in the tournament, going 3-1 en route to a quarterfinal exit at the hands of Novak Djokovic. De Minaur has enjoyed the 6th-best season to date on the men's tour. His highlights include a title in Latin America and an appearance in the Rotterdam final.
Nadal vs de Minaur Prediction: OVER 22.5 games
This looks like it will be a tough match. But I find Nadal cloudy right now. He did do well against Cobolli but there's some question as to the Spaniard's body holding up at this point. I wonder what will happen to Nadal if he is extended to a 30+ game match.
Nadal didn't get an ace in the first round. Meanwhile, de Minaur is the second-best return player on the ATP Tour with a 159.3 return rating. That rating does go down a little on clay but I could see the Aussie giving Nadal a lot of trouble in this match and creating some long points. That creates the potential for this to be a long battle. My recommendation is the OVER for total games at 22.5 and odds of -120 (bet365). I just can't see either player walking away with an easy win here.
de Minaur vs Nadal prediction: Draw at the 2024 Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell
De Minaur is the No. 4 seed in the Barcelona draw. The other players in this section are Daniel Altmaier and Arthur Fils. Fils is the No. 16 seed in the tournament. I see the de Minaur/Nadal winner as very likely to win in the next round. I have not liked Fils' playing level much recently. Meanwhile, Altmaier isn't the kind of player that makes it deep into too many well-contested tournaments.
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