Update: Rafael Nadal withdrew from the tournament. Sumit Nagal of India replaced Nadal in the draw as a lucky loser from the qualifying event. Raonic vs Nagal prediction to follow.
Rafael Nadal was to face Milos Raonic in the 2024 BNP Paribas Open. However, the Spaniard has pulled out of the event according to multiple news sources. The tournament's homepage headlined on Wednesday "Rafael Nadal Withdraws From The 2024 BNP Paribas Open." The Spaniard is quoted by website staff:
Rafael Nadal: “It is with great sadness that I have to withdraw from this amazing tournament. Everyone knows how much I love this place and how much I love to play here at Indian Wells. That’s also one of the reasons why I came very early to the desert to practice and try to get ready. I have been working hard and practicing and you all know I took a test this weekend but I don’t find myself ready to play at the highest level at such an important event. It is not an easy decision, it’s a tough one as a matter of fact but I can’t lie to myself and lie to the thousands of fans. I will miss you all and I am sure the tournament will be a great success.”
Sumit Nagal will replace Raonic in the main draw. I expect Raonic to be the betting favorite in the match when the odds are updated.
Note: The rest of this article was written prior to Nadal's withdrawal.
Raonic vs Nadal preview
Former World No. 1 Rafael Nadal will face Canada's Milos Raonic at the 2024 ATP Indian Wells tennis tournament in an upcoming match. This will be a first-round match in the Masters Series event, one that will draw a lot of attention due to the fame of the two players. Nadal is entering as the favorite to win his opening match at the 2024 BNP Paribas Open, priced at -200 on the moneyline (bet365). My Nadal vs Raonic prediction is that the Spaniard will win this upcoming match.
Schedule: Right-click/Open in the New Tab to check match times: subject to change
Rafael Nadal vs Milos Raonic Head-to-Head Series
The Nadal vs Raonic h2h is 10-3 in favor of the former player, using bet365's stats. That would suggest that there is some betting value in backing the Spaniard here, even at odds as short as -200 (bet365). However, they have not faced one another since the 2019 season. Even that match was just in the Laver Cup. The huge majority of their matches were played in the 2017 season or prior, meaning that their series could be taken lightly. It's very clear that these two players are at a different point in their careers than when they played the bulk of their matches.
If you go by ATP stats, then the series is 8-2 for Nadal. Both of Raonic's victories are on the hardcourt surface. Furthermore, he won the only meeting that the two players had in Indian Wells, that coming from the 2015 season.
The Draw: Right-click/Open in the New Tab for the draw for the 2024 BNP Paribas Open
Rafael Nadal's Recent Tennis Results
Nadal has only played in three tour-level matches since the end of the 2023 Australian Open. He went 2-1 in the ATP Brisbane draw earlier this season, losing to Jordan Thompson in that tournament's quarterfinals. Nadal also participated in an exhibition match against Carlos Alcaraz recently, one that Nadal won a set in but lost 2-1 in the end.
Milos Raonic's Recent Tennis Results
We have not seen much of Raonic lately either. What stands out with his recent matches is that he dropped out of both Rotterdam and the Australian Open via retirement. In Rotterdam, he made the quarterfinals but retired against Jannik Sinner. At Melbourne Park, he claimed a set off of Alex de Minaur but pulled out injured when things stopped going well.
Nadal vs Raonic Prediction: Nadal to win
I cannot say that I have any confidence in Raonic at just +162 (bet365). Mainly, I am worried that he might tap out if loses a first-set tiebreaker.
In a match between two veterans who have struggled with injuries lately (if not for significant parts of their careers), Nadal is the one who should have more determination. I like his superior fighting spirit makes him more of a favorite than what the odds suggest.
My recommendation is Nadal at -200, mainly because I just don't have confidence in Raonic playing this match from start to finish. Even if he does, I don't know that the backend of the match will be high-quality. I think if you are a dedicated Raonic backer, you love the first set score at 7-6 and odds of +600.
Raonic vs Nadal prediction: Draw at the 2024 BNP Paribas Open
The winner of this match will face Holger Rune in the next round. Rune, at least for a Top Ten player, has slumped for quite some time. If Nadal is fit and healthy, then Rune vs Nadal could be viewed as an open match. I think the oddsmakers would only make the Dane a mild favorite if that match occurred.
