The new ATP rankings are out as of April 15th, 2024. Jannik Sinner remains the World No. 2 following the results from the 2024 Monte Carlo Masters. He and World No. 1 Novak Djokovic each went out in the semifinal round of the tournament. As of Monday, Sinner trails Djokovic by 1285 ranking points in the rankings. Here's a look at Sinner's chances of chasing down the World No. 1 ranking in the weeks ahead.
Sinner's Chances: No. 1 Ranking
As of the April 15th, 2024 rankings, there are three players in the mix at this point for the top spot in the weeks and months ahead: Djokovic, Sinner, and Carlos Alcaraz. The difference between Sinner and Alcaraz at this point is minimal for the No. 2 and No. 3 spots on tour but Djokovic still has a comfortable lead on top.
- Djokovic: 10,035 ranking points
- Sinner: 8750
- Alcaraz: 8645
Before the semifinal appearance in Monte Carlo, Djokovic was all but idle during Indian Wells and Miami. He skipped the latter event and went out very early in the former event. Meanwhile, Sinner and Alcaraz split the titles, Sinner winning in Miami and Alcaraz winning in Indian Wells.
Importantly, Alcaraz pulled out of the Monte-Carlo Masters just ahead of the start of the tournament. His fitness/health status right now is a little ambiguous. For that reason, I am going to look at Sinner vs Djokovic for the World No. 1 ranking at this point. However, that is not to discount Alcaraz as he is in the picture. His injury status does cloud him right now.
Looking Ahead: Ranking Point Perspectives
Djokovic is 36 years old and he simply cannot be expected to stay on top of the world for much longer. However, he could be hard to catch before the French Open. He did not bank a lot of ranking points in April or May of 2023. Djokovic has just 180 ranking points to defend in Rome, 0 in Madrid, and just 45 from another countable event. If he plays well in the events before the French Open, then he could pad his lead in the standings.
Jannik Sinner also does not have a ton of ranking points to defend in April and May. He has 90 points to defend at Barcelona and 90 at Rome. The points at Barcelona will drop for sure as he is not in the draw. But with Rome and Madrid, he stands to gain a lot of points. He could be No. 1 after Rome, which is May 8th to May 19th. However, that would require playing well and Djokovic either doing poorly or being idle on tour.
Then Alcaraz is in the mix. According to his ranking breakdown, he had nothing to defend in Monte Carlo so that he missed the tournament did not cost him any ranking points.
He did have a title defense in Barcelona this week but the Spaniard pulled out of the tournament. That, in turn, will cost him 500 ranking points, the amount he won with the title last season. Furthermore, he won the Madrid Masters last season so if he is not healthy soon, he will lose another 1000 ranking points.
ATP Rankings: Jannik Sinner Prediction
When looking at rankings, you have to be aware of the plus and minus aspect. It's not just how many ranking points are on the table for winning a title. It's how the particular player does against his result from a year ago that matters.
For instance, Sinner just the won the title at the 2024 Miami Open. The ranking points are 1000 for the title winner in that event. However, Sinner made the final in the 2023 Miami Open. That earned him 600 ranking points. The 600 ranking points will drop on Monday and the 1000 will be added, so he gains 400, not 1000.
It's this plus-minus aspect that makes the projections complicated. Also, you never totally know if a player is going to have a light schedule or a heavy one. Schedule changes happen all the time due to fatigue, injuries, and personal matters. But the way things look, I predict Sinner will be the No. 1 player after the French Open this season.
