Australian tennis player Alex de Minaur will face France's Arthur Fils at the 2024 ATP Barcelona tennis tournament. This will be a round-of-sixteen match in the clay-court draw, an event that is also known as the 2024 Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell. De Minaur is coming off a win over Rafael Nadal, one that has to have his confidence high. The Aussie is priced at -400 (bet365) to advance to the quarterfinals in the 500-series event in Spain. My de Minaur vs Fils prediction is that Fils will have the first break of serve in this match at underdog odds.
Order of Play: Right-click/Open in the New Tab to check match times: subject to change
Alex de Minaur vs Arthur Fils Head-to-Head Series
The de Minaur vs Fils h2h is 0-0. Their match on Thursday will be the first between the two players. De Minaur enters the match as the World No. 11. Meanwhile, Fils is the World No. 32. On year-to-date rankings, Fils is the No. 39 player so far this season. Meanwhile, de Minaur is one of the best players so far in 2024. His season-to-date makes him the No. 5 player so far.
The Draw: Right-click/Open the link in a new tab for the draw for the 2024 Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell
Alex de Minaur's Recent Matches and Results
De Minaur beat Rafael Nadal in the round of 32 by a line score of 7-5, 6-1. He was a small underdog in the match at +110 (bet365). Previously, de Minaur had a bye through the first round. The Australian was in Monaco last week to contest the Monte-Carlo Masters. He did well in that 1000-level tournament, going 3-1 en route to a quarterfinal exit, losing to Novak Djokovic. De Minaur's highlights this season include a title in Latin America and an appearance in the Rotterdam final.
Arthur Fils' Recent Matches and Results
Fils' clay-court results have not been remarkable so far this season. He defeated Daniel Altmaier in the last round, a player that is unaccomplished on tour. This was a three-set match that had fairly short sets at 6-4, 1-6, 6-1. Last week, Fils was in Monte-Carlo where he went 1-1 in the draw. He also contested the Estoril draw a short time ago, going 1-1 in that event. Fils entered three clay-court events in Latin America back in February. He went 1-3 in those events combined.
Serving Splits: ATP Stats
This section lists each player's ATP stats for the last 52 weeks on the relevant surface. Bettors should look and consider the splits: how one player's serve seems to match up against the other player's return-of-serve.
When you look at the statistics below, you might expect these two players to get into the opposing player's serve. Each player has a good return game relative to the opposing player's service game.
Alex de Minaur
Serving ability: 64th/clay/last 52 weeks
Return-of-serve ability: 21st/clay/last 52 weeks
Arthur Fils
Serving ability: 66th/clay/last 52 weeks
Return-of-serve ability: 27th/clay/last 52 weeks
De Minaur vs Fils Prediction: Tennis Prop Bet
I think the oddsmakers have this one forked with de Minaur at -400 and Fils at +300 (bet365). What I will recommend is a simple prop bet: take Fils to break de Minaur's serve in the match first. That's at +225 (bet365). Fils isn't bad statistically as a returning player on clay. I would think that the odds in this prop bet would be a bit tighter to EVEN. At +225, I think bettors have found a good pick for the match.
Fils vs de Minaur prediction: Draw at the 2024 Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell
The winner of this match will face either Dusan Lajovic or Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the next round. De Minaur looks like a promising prospect to get into the semifinals. At that point, he might just face Stefanos Tsitsipas, the Monte-Carlo winner last week.
There is a chance that Tsitsipas tires this week so perhaps de Minaur can take advantage and make the final in Barcelona. On the bottom half of the draw, Casper Ruud is alive still but even he might tire out this week after making the Monte-Carlo final. De Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima in the final isn't out of the question.
Additional reading: All previews for upcoming tennis matches!
