Daniel Medvedev will face Arthur Fils at the 2023 ATP Vienna tennis event this week. The match is an interesting one as it features an established star in Medvedev against a player on the rise in Fils. This will be a first-round match in the tournament, a competition that is also known as the 2023 Erst Bank Open. My Medvedev vs Fils prediction is that the latter's game handicap factors into the match, one that should be closer than assumed.
Schedule of Play: Right-click/Open in the New Tab to check match times: subject to change
Recent Match Results for Daniel Medvedev
With our most recent look at Medvedev, he was in the 2023 Shanghai Masters. The Russian suffered a loss to Sebastian Korda in straight sets. Previously, Medvedev defeated Cristian Garin comfortably in the same draw.
Perhaps, Medvedev was a little below top form due to his efforts in the previous week in the ATP Beijing draw, where he lost to Jannik Sinner in the tournament's final. In the same draw, Medevedev beat Alexander Zverev, Alex de Minaur, and Tommy Paul. The dangerous Russian player and World No. 3 also has recent match wins over Carlos Alcaraz and Andrey Rublev. Medvedev is entering Vienna fresh and that means a deep run could be on the table for him.
Medvedev has not played in a match since October 7th, meaning that if he was tired earlier this month, he should be renewed by now. The results below show that it has taken a very good player to eliminate Medvedev from a draw in his recent outings.
Shanghai Masters R32: Loss to Sebastian Korda
ATP Beijing final: Loss to Jannik Sinner
US Open final: Loss to Novak Djokovic
Cincinnati Masters R16: Loss to Zverev
Canadian Masters quarterfinals: Loss to de Minaur
Recent matches (Right click/Open link in new tab): Daniel Medvedev
Daniel Medvedev vs Arthur Fils Head-to-Head Series
Medvedev and Fils have not played one another yet in their careers. The latter was active last week in the ATP Antwerp draw. He fell in the final in what was a disappointing loss. It looked like Fils had a chance to claim the 250-level tournament title.
He has played four matches since October 18th but Fils is just 19 years old. All of the matches were straight-set affairs. It is hard to picture Fils being overly tired for this upcoming match against Medvedev. When they meet on Wednesday, Fils would have had two full days off as the Antwerp final was played on October 22nd.
The Draw: Right-click/Open in the New Tab for the draw for the 2023 Erst Bank Open
Medvedev vs Fils Prediction: Fils +4.5 game handicaps
This should be viewed as a fairly open match. Medvedev is coming in at -700 which overrates his chances (bet365). Fils is not the kind of player that top guys will just be casting to the side. He is priced at +450 in the match for a moneyline bet, a decent line for value bettors. But my recommendation is to take a game handicap of +4.5 at -138 on Fils.
There's not a great chance that Medvedev will post one-sided sets in this match. In fact, it would not be surprising to see this one go three sets or feature a tiebreaker at some point. The plus handicap on Fils could loom large in those scenarios.
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