Week 2 of the NFL featured some amazing games. As always, understanding how well quarterbacks are playing is critical to predicting a team's future success.
Earlier this week, we looked at the odds-on favorites to win the NFL MVP at this early point in the season. Noting that they are all quarterbacks in the Top Ten, let's use the betting favorites to compare and contrast against a Power Rankings list for NFL quarterbacks thus far this season.
NFL MVP Betting Favorites (bet365)
- Josh Allen +300 (3 to 1)
- Patrick Mahomes +450
- Jalen Hurts +800
- Justin Herbert +900
- Lamar Jackson +1200
- Aaron Rodgers +1800
- Tom Brady +1800
- Tua Tagovailoa +1800
- Joe Burrow +2000
- Russell Wilson +2000
Our betting tip for MVP was Tua Tagovailoa, a player that we thought would have shortening odds in the near future. In our NFL quarterback power rankings, we're going to emphasize five factors. Let's see how Tagovailoa fits.
Five Factors in NFL QB Power Rankings
The five factors that we are going to consider are as follows.
- Passing yards - the more the better
- Passing touchdowns - the more the better
- Team wins - the more the better
- Completion percentage - the higher the better
- INTs - the fewer the better
What we are not going to consider is the strength of the opposition. It stands to reason that quarterbacks that faced weak defenses through the first two weeks may have inflated rankings in our system. Furthermore, we aren't looking at rushing yards for a QB, which affects Jalen Hurts.
However, here's what we compiled for a Top Five for NFL Quarterback Power Rankings heading into Week 3, a list that should be food for thought.
NFL Quarterback Power Rankings - Passing
- Tua Tagovailoa - Miami Dolphins
- Josh Allen - Buffalo Bills
- Patrick Mahomes - Kansas City Chiefs
- Justin Herbert - Los Angeles Chargers
- Carson Wentz - Washington Commanders
On our weighted average, Tagovailoa finishes first thanks in large part to his passing yards total. He leads the NFL by a large margin at 739 total passing yards. He is also tied in touchdowns at seven. His completion percentage of 71.1% makes him 6th in the league. His two INTs hurt but they don't offset his contributions. Furthermore, that his team is 2-0 also helps.
Josh Allen is our No. 2 performer so far. He is second in the league in completion percentage behind Geno Smith. However, Allen has the best completion percentage among the five QBs above.
Patrick Mahomes has the best ratio of TDs to INTs in the league. So far, his sheet is clean all season for INTs and he has tossed seven touchdowns. He is sixth in the league in passing yards, however, his team is 2-0. Three players above him in the NFL for passing yards are playing for 1-1 teams.
Justin Herbert is playing for a 1-1 team. He has good touchdown total at 6 on the season. His one INT was costly as it was the difference in the game against the KC Chiefs in Week 2. Had that INT gone differently and Herbert had instead completed the pass for the TD, it's possible that he would be No. 1 in this list.
Carson Wentz has thrown for a ton of yards this season thus far. He is No. 2 in the league from that perspective. In a QB Power Rankings system that emphasizes passing yards, he finishes high. However, he has three INTs and his team is 1-1 thus far.
When looking at the odds above, 18 to 1 on Tagovailoa looks like a value pick.
