The NFL MVP betting market has seen some changes in the early weeks of the current NFL season. Heading into Week 4, Tua Tagovailoa has emerged as the betting favorite to win the award.
The quarterback for the Miami Dolphins, Tagovailoa enters the limelight for numerous reasons. Firstly, anyone in the know has known for over a year that he's one of the best QBs in the league, if not the best one (when he's not injured). Also, Miami is 3-0 and they scored an almost unheard-of 70 points in Week 3 as they made the Denver Broncos look like a CFL team.
Tagovailoa is now +300 to win the NFL MVP award. He was +550 heading into the week (all odds bet365). Meanwhile, the preseason favorite, Patrick Mahomes, is at 5 to 1. Joe Burrow, one of the early-season favorites, is falling off of the radar. He is now out at 20 to 1.
3 to 1 is a tough bet on the Miami QB1. His injury history cannot be ignored. If anything, you have to consider the betting odds to be about right.
NFL MVP Power Rankings: Best Bets
For best bets in this market, you have to like Brock Purdy still. He has been among my picks for MVP for a number of weeks now.
Currently, he is 18 to 1 in the NFL MVP market despite stellar play. Purdy is 4-0 on TDs to INTs, he has the fourth-best passer rating, and his team is 3-0. Purdy also has the second-best QBR in the league -- behind Tagovailoa.
As for the big longshots, there is Kirk Cousins. He leads the NFL in passing TDs right now with nine. He also leads the NFL in passing yards with 1,075.
The problem that many will have with Cousins is that his team is 0-3. The MVP is voted on and when QBs don't lead teams to wins, it's a huge knock against them at the ballot box. But records can change. If Minnesota starts to get some victories, then look for odds of 80 to 1 on Cousins to shorten quickly. For sure, 80 to 1 on a guy who has the most passing TDs and the most yards is a value pick.
Micah Parsons has the distinction of being the biggest MVP favorite not to play quarterback. The linebacker for the Dallas Cowboys is currently 40 to 1.
Top 3 NFL MVP Power Rankings Adjusted for Betting Odds
- Purdy 18 to 1
- Cousins 80 to 1
- Jalen Hurts 15 to 2
Bettors Beware: Avoid These NFL MVP Favorites
Patrick Mahomes
Lamar Jackson
Deshaun Watson
Justin Herbert
Joe Burrow
Featured article: NFL Week 4 Predictions and Picks (MAIN MARKETS)
