Tua Tagovailoa Tipped in NFL MVP Market

Betting odds for the NFL MVP are examined following Week 2. A tip is provided for bettors looking for a longshot in this market.


The odds on the favorites to win the NFL MVP have been updated following the results from Week 2. The favorite remains Josh Allen. His Buffalo Bills improved to 2-0 on Monday night and Allen was very effective. His odds for the NFL MVP are below as are the Top Ten favorites according to bet365 sportsbook.

Betting favorites to win the NFL MVP ahead of Week 3

  • Josh Allen +300 (3 to 1)
  • Patrick Mahomes +450
  • Jalen Hurts +800
  • Justin Herbert +900
  • Lamar Jackson +1200
  • Aaron Rodgers +1800
  • Tom Brady +1800
  • Tua Tagovailoa +1800
  • Joe Burrow +2000
  • Russell Wilson +2000

The NFL MVP is a market that belongs to quarterbacks. The non-QB with the shortest odds did not make the list of the top ten players above. Justin Jefferson, the wide receiver for the Minnesota Vikings, is priced at +6600 (66 to 1) to win the NFL MVP.

The MVP market is also one that is decided based on subjective opinion. That's different than winning a competition to throw the most yards, for instance.

Where is the value bet among the longshots?

The best bet among the favorites is Tua Tagovailoa. The quarterback for the Miami Dolphins is priced nice and long at 18 to 1. Furthermore, the Dolphins are 2-0 so they are off to a solid start.

Tagovailoa leads all quarterbacks in the NFL in passing yards with 739 yards. He is also in a four-way tie for passing touchdowns with seven, the same amount that Patrick Mahomes and Allen have thrown. That makes it clear that Tagovailoa is the player whose odds are most likely to shorten in the weeks ahead. Allen and Mahomes will more or less stay where they are should they keep playing well. Miami's QB, conversely, should shorten if he keeps up his efforts.

This market certainly isn't static and the changing odds change the picks. If you are opening your betting or looking to add an insurance bet, then Tagovailoa is the pick to make ahead of Week 3.

NFL MVP betting recommendation:

  • Tua Tagovailoa to win NFL MVP at 18 to 1 with bet365

Bettors Beware

  • Avoid Tom Brady like the plague