By Richard Gale

September 7, 2026 • 6:21 PM EDT

Updated 1 hours ago

Andersen’s Absence Risks Edmonton’s Early-Season Odds

Frederik Andersen is officially out for the start of the season, leaving the Edmonton Oilers with Tristan Jarry and Devon Levi as their only NHL-ready goalies for the opener at Rogers Place.

That’s a sharper impact than the books are pricing: Jarry struggled after his trade, posting just a .858 save percentage in limited Oilers action, while Levi is an untested commodity at this level. The drop-off is not a minor blip, it’s a risk event for Edmonton’s defensive ceiling, especially through that critical opening 10-game stretch.

Bettors who move quickly can still exploit this gap. Expect at least a 10-15 cent drift on the Oilers moneyline for the games Andersen misses, if you see Edmonton as a favorite before Andersen returns, you’re looking at a mispriced line. The public often lags on goalie news; sharp money fades that bias.

The real step-change isn’t just in who’s in net, it’s in the Oilers’ defensive volatility. Jarry’s save percentage last spring tanked Edmonton’s expected-goals numbers, and there’s no data-backed argument Levi is a plug-and-play NHL starter yet. The result: an inflated chance for defensive lapses, more variance in high-danger scoring chances against, and a legitimate rationale for betting the over in any game with a total at 6.5 or below.

Why Edmonton’s Defense is Suddenly a Betting Target

Related: Canadiens Eye Michael Bunting As Potential PTO Addition

The Oilers’ recent depth chart tells a clear story: once Andersen is sidelined, Jarry and Levi are the only realistic options. Jarry’s performance after arriving in Edmonton last season wasn’t a small sample fluke, his glove-side reaction lagged on rush chances, and the underlying metrics flagged his high-danger save rate as well below league average. Every minute he or Levi spends in net raises the Oilers’ implied goals-against, opportunities for both opposing team total overs and specific scoring/points props versus Edmonton.

The way I see it: the early schedule is where the betting edge sits. Books may keep Edmonton as a favorite off their offensive rep, but the defense isn’t the same profile until Andersen returns. Look for the opening lines, especially against decent offensive opponents, to understate just how wobbly the Oilers are between the pipes right now. Smart bettors don’t buy the name value, they zero in on the trend.

• Frederik Andersen is out to start the season: Edmonton’s defensive anchor is missing, raising implied goals-against.
• Jarry posted a .858 save percentage post-trade: this isn’t starter form and limits faith in the Oilers moneyline.
• Devon Levi is unproven at the NHL level: expect more volatility and suspect defense early on.
• Oilers likely see a 10-15 cent drift as favorites: lines will adjust as the public catches on.
• Game totals for Edmonton games may trend 0.2-0.3 higher while Andersen is out: target early overs if the line is 6.5 or lower.
• Opposing team scoring props become more attractive: fade the Oilers’ goaltending until further notice.

Key Takeaways for Early-Season Oilers Bets

• Fade the Oilers moneyline in the first two weeks, too much goaltending risk at favorite pricing.
• Bet the over if totals are 6.5 or lower in Oilers games, defensive volatility is up.
• Target opposing team total and scoring props versus Edmonton, the numbers justify the risk right now.
• Monitor Andersen’s status daily but expect no return in the first 5-10 games.
• Downgrade Oilers Stanley Cup and division futures until Andersen is back and stable.
• Keep stakes tight if/when Jarry is benched, Levi lacks NHL sample size for confident read.
• Track early line movement, if the market adjusts, pivot fast back to pre-injury lines.

Back the early-season fade: the Oilers moneyline should be avoided the first two weeks, and totals at 6.5 or below are live to the over until the goalie depth chart stabilizes. All the updated action is archived in the Edmonton Oilers picks and season record if you’re betting this angle nightly.

“If Jarry can get back to his pre-trade numbers, the crease will stabilize. But if not, the Oilers could be staring at a rough start.”ThePicks analysis

This article was produced with AI assistance by Richard Gale (senior gambling industry executive and ThePicks founder), with editorial standards and betting methodology overseen by Ben Gale, and reviewed by the ThePicks editorial team. All statistics sourced from live BDL API data and verified source material. All betting opinions are those of ThePicks analysts.

https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/where-does-jarrys-future-lie-190139797.html

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