NHL Picks

Goaltender analysis

Save percentage, goals-against average, and recent workload for both starters. We weight high-danger save rate over raw GAA, then check confirmed starts and back-to-back rest for each goaltender.

Special teams

Power play and penalty kill percentage for both sides, plus recent special-teams form. A top-5 power play against a bottom-10 penalty kill is a line-moving mismatch we always check.

Rest & schedule

Back-to-backs, travel distance, and confirmed lineup changes. A team on the second night of a back-to-back facing a fully rested opponent is a factor that shows up in our model every time.

Line value

We only publish a pick when our model shows positive expected value (+EV). If the market has already priced in the edge, we pass. Line movement and public betting percentage are tracked right up to puck drop.