Myles Garrett Injury Leaves Los Angeles Rams Exposed on the Spread This Week

NFL Myles Garrett Injury Leaves Los Angeles Rams Exposed on the Spread This Week

By Ben Gale

September 16, 2026 • 12:11 PM EDT

Updated 1 hours ago

Myles Garrett Injury Leaves Los Angeles Rams Exposed on the Spread This Week

The Rams Just Lost Their Defensive Anchor: Fade the Spread This Week

Myles Garrett was ruled out for at least four games after undergoing knee surgery following the Los Angeles Rams’ blowout 27-7 home loss to the San Francisco 49ers in Week 1. The timing isn’t just bad, it’s brutal. The Rams’ defense powered them to a 12-5 season in 2025, but no stat matters more today than Garrett heading to IR.

The advanced data is clear: Garrett was responsible for a league-leading pressure rate and anchored a pass rush that allowed the Rams to run up a +172 point differential last year. Now, the Rams are facing multiple weeks with no Defensive Player of the Year candidate and no time to patch the hole. The BDL tracker confirms the team put Garrett on IR this morning, yet the books haven’t caught up.

The betting implication is direct. Without Garrett, the line on the Rams is at least 1 to 1.5 points too generous versus where it should be. Opposing QBs and RBs are suddenly in play for yardage overs, and the Rams’ point spread strength just collapsed. This isn’t a blip, it’s a market edge for anyone adapting faster than the public.

Why Garrett’s Absence Is a Real Handicap, Not Just a Headline

Last year’s numbers are still echoing in the market: the Rams went 12-5, smashed opponents at home (7-1), and kept games low scoring. All of that relied on dominant defensive play. Garrett wasn’t just disruptive, he forced quarterbacks into mistakes and gave the Rams’ offense short fields. Stats say the unit ranked top five in sacks and pressures. With him gone, no one left on the depth chart offers even 70% of that impact.

Now, every opposing team’s odds to sustain long drives increase. The Rams’ chance of blowing a lead just went up. Game totals won’t bottom out, but the balance tips away from the Rams covering spreads and toward plenty of shootout potential if the offense can’t keep pace. The market still sees the 2025 Rams. That’s a trap for anyone betting Week 2 like nothing changed.

Pivotal Metrics for Bettors: Pressure Rate and Defensive Efficiency

Garrett’s individual pressure rate last year was in the elite tier. The Rams’ third-down stop rate and red-zone efficiency traced almost exactly with his snap count. The BDL logs show that after he left the field in Week 1, the Rams allowed over 200 yards in the second half alone, evidence that without their main disruptor, the wheels come off fast.

Myles Garrett to IR: Rams lose their premier pass rusher and defensive tone-setter for at least four games, directly weakening every line priced on defensive strength.
2025 record (12-5, +172 point differential): Market is slow to adjust, keeping the Rams overpriced coming into Week 2, watch for inefficient lines.
Week 1 blowout loss to San Francisco (27-7): Showed the immediate effect of no depth behind Garrett; defense became vulnerable to both the run and explosive plays late.
Opponent player props (rushing/passing): Live edge for over bets, with no dominant front four to generate pressure or stuff run plays behind the line.
Total market: Slightly depressed as public expects a wounded Rams team to slow pace, don’t buy that logic just yet, but fading Rams’ covers is actionable right now.

The Only Play Right Now Is to Fade the Rams Until the Market Adjusts

The way I see it: this is where sharp money moves first. The absence of Myles Garrett is worth at least a 1- to 1.5-point drop in power rating, more if the defense looks as soft next week as it did late against San Francisco. Unders on Rams’ defensive props are live, but the strongest angle remains fading Los Angeles on the spread in Week 2 and targeting opponent overs while books still use 2025 metrics. The full track record and updated line are always up on the Los Angeles Rams picks and season record.

Key Takeaways From the Garrett Injury for NFL Bettors

Back the opponent to cover the spread against the Rams in every game Garrett misses.
Target overs on opponent rushing and passing yardage props vs. Los Angeles until the pass rush shows signs of life.
Monitor the Rams’ defensive splits, if run defense collapses, double down on opponent RB props.
Fade the Rams’ moneyline until Garrett returns and the defense reestablishes itself.
React quickly: aging market expectations off 2025 record lets you exploit inefficient Week 2 lines.
Check the BDL API status tracker pregame for late-breaking updates on Rams defensive depth.
Don’t let 12-5 fool you: the 2026 Rams without Garrett are a completely different bet.

“Losing a player like Myles takes a chunk out of what we do. Next man up, but you can’t replace that production.”Sean McVay, Los Angeles Rams head coach

This article was produced with AI assistance by Ben Gale, with editorial standards and betting methodology overseen by Richard Gale (senior gambling industry executive, ThePicks founder), and reviewed by the ThePicks editorial team. All statistics sourced from live BDL API data and verified source material. All betting opinions are those of ThePicks analysts.

https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/live/nfl-news-today-injury-updates-week-2-rumors-rosters-120656469.html

21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. The content on this site is for entertainment purposes only. We may earn a commission from affiliate links.

Frequently Asked Questions

Myles Garrett will miss at least four games after undergoing a knee procedure. He was placed on injured reserve following the Rams’ Week 1 loss to the 49ers. His absence significantly weakens the Rams’ defensive front for the next month.

Garrett’s injury shifts the Rams’ spread by about 1 to 1.5 points, making them less likely to cover. Los Angeles’ defense is now a betting liability. Expect higher odds on opponent player props and a lower implied Rams win probability.

Target opponent overs for rushing and passing props and look to fade the Rams on the spread. The drop-off in pass rush boosts opponent offensive output and makes the Rams less likely to cover each week Garrett is sidelined.

With Myles Garrett sidelined, the Rams will rely on rotational edge rushers and backup defensive linemen. However, none currently on the depth chart can replicate his disruptive impact, leaving opposing offenses with more opportunities.

Myles Garrett underwent knee surgery and is now on injured reserve. He is expected to miss a minimum of four weeks. The Los Angeles Rams confirmed the move after a comprehensive team evaluation post-Week 1.

The Rams lost 27-7 to the 49ers in Week 1—after losing Garrett, the defense struggled to stop both the run and the pass. This exposed the Rams’ lack of depth and highlights the challenge they face in his absence.

Yes. The Rams’ pressure rate, sack total, and red-zone efficiency are likely to decline. Garrett was the centerpiece of the defense, and opposing QBs and RBs should have more room to operate until he returns.