October 8, 2026
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Expected ValueShowing 100 players with active props
62.4%
60.7%
61.8%
68.4%
this season
| Month | W-L-P | Win % | Spread | Totals | Props | Units +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 season total | 68-41-3 | 62.4 | 34-22-1 | 21-13-1 | 13-6-1 | +24.3u |
| April 2026 | 18-10-1 | 64.3 | 9-5-0 | 6-4-1 | 3-1-0 | +7.2u |
| March 2026 | 22-14-1 | 61.1 | 11-8-1 | 7-4-0 | 4-2-0 | +8.6u |
| February 2026 | 16-10-1 | 61.5 | 8-6-0 | 5-3-0 | 3-1-1 | +5.4u |
| January 2026 | 12-7-0 | 63.2 | 6-3-0 | 3-2-0 | 3-2-0 | +3.1u |
| Month | W-L-P | Win % | Spread | Totals | Props | Units +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 season total | 68-41-3 | 62.4 | 34-22-1 | 21-13-1 | 13-6-1 | +24.3u |
| April 2026 | 18-10-1 | 64.3 | 9-5-0 | 6-4-1 | 3-1-0 | +7.2u |
| Month | W-L-P | Win % | Spread | Totals | Props | Units +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 season total | 68-41-3 | 62.4 | 34-22-1 | 21-13-1 | 13-6-1 | +24.3u |
| April 2026 | 18-10-1 | 64.3 | 9-5-0 | 6-4-1 | 3-1-0 | +7.2u |
| Month | W-L-P | Win % | Spread | Totals | Props | Units +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 season total | 68-41-3 | 62.4 | 34-22-1 | 21-13-1 | 13-6-1 | +24.3u |
| April 2026 | 18-10-1 | 64.3 | 9-5-0 | 6-4-1 | 3-1-0 | +7.2u |
Finding consistent edge in NFL betting means doing the work most bettors skip. Our analysts run through the same four-step framework for every game — no gut feelings, no recency bias. Every pick published on ThePicks goes through matchup analysis, injury and personnel context, weather assessment, and line value checks before it’s posted.
EPA per play, DVOA, and pace for both offenses and defenses. We weight opponent-adjusted efficiency over raw counting stats, then check recent form and how each unit fares against a similar offensive or defensive style.
Confirmed injury report, snap-count trends, and secondary/offensive-line health. A banged-up secondary facing a top-tier passing attack, or a backup quarterback getting the start, is a line-moving factor we always check.
Wind speed and direction, temperature, and precipitation at kickoff. Sustained wind above 15-20 mph at an outdoor stadium is a totals mover — it hits passing accuracy and field goal range before it hits anything else.
We only publish a pick when our model shows positive expected value (+EV). If the market has already priced in the edge, we pass. Line movement and public betting percentage are tracked right up to kickoff.
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