NFL Picks

Matchup analysis

EPA per play, DVOA, and pace for both offenses and defenses. We weight opponent-adjusted efficiency over raw counting stats, then check recent form and how each unit fares against a similar offensive or defensive style.

Injury & personnel context

Confirmed injury report, snap-count trends, and secondary/offensive-line health. A banged-up secondary facing a top-tier passing attack, or a backup quarterback getting the start, is a line-moving factor we always check.

Weather & conditions

Wind speed and direction, temperature, and precipitation at kickoff. Sustained wind above 15-20 mph at an outdoor stadium is a totals mover — it hits passing accuracy and field goal range before it hits anything else.

Line value

We only publish a pick when our model shows positive expected value (+EV). If the market has already priced in the edge, we pass. Line movement and public betting percentage are tracked right up to kickoff.