By Ben Gale

September 23, 2026 • 9:11 PM EDT

Updated 1 hours ago

Chicago Bears Are Down to Case Keenum at Quarterback as Monday Night Approaches

Chicago Bears coach Ben Johnson confirmed Wednesday that both Caleb Williams (hamstring) and Tyson Bagent (concussion protocol) are questionable for Monday night’s matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles at Soldier Field. Only veteran backup Case Keenum is practicing with the first team as of midweek. That’s not how the market priced this game.

Williams hasn’t practiced this week and is battling a hamstring injury. Bagent remains in concussion protocol. Every reported snap at quarterback in team drills went to Keenum, the 36-year-old journeyman who wasn’t expected to see the field this year. Live BDL data confirms: there is no clear path yet for Williams or Bagent to start. The sportsbooks still show the Bears inside a field-goal underdog.

That’s where the opportunity is. The market is building in hope that Williams makes a late-week recovery or Bagent clears protocol. The public narrative, fed by coach Johnson’s non-committal “confidence in the room” press quote, says the gameplan won’t shift. The reality is different. If Keenum starts, you’re looking at a radically reduced ceiling on Chicago’s offense and a defense-first, risk-averse approach. Betting moves need to anticipate that, not wait for official confirmation.

Keenum Practicing Changes the Entire Bears Betting Landscape

Related: Giants and Bears QB Injuries Shake Up NFL Totals and Props for Week 3: Why Unders Deserve Your Attention

The data is simple: both starting-caliber quarterbacks are out of practice, and no clear timeline puts them under center Monday. Keenum is a capable veteran, but there’s a reason he’s QB3. This isn’t just a toss-up. The last time an NFL team lost its top two quarterbacks on five days’ notice, their team total shrunk nearly a touchdown. Bookmakers are slow to update totals until a starter is confirmed, but sharp bettors win by moving now.

The Eagles enter at 11-6, matching the Bears’ record, but have no quarterback chaos and come off back-to-back elite defensive performances. The projected point total sits around 43 pending updates. That number is at risk of dropping if Keenum gets the nod. The Eagles’ defensive line found a rhythm in the last two weeks, notching seven sacks and five turnovers combined. If Keenum plays, Philadelphia’s DST props, sacks, interceptions, immediately gain value, and the market likely overstates what the Bears can do offensively.

• Both Caleb Williams and Tyson Bagent are not practicing as of Wednesday: the only healthy Bears quarterback available is Case Keenum, making a third-string start highly probable.
• The current point spread reflects expectations of at least one starting quarterback playing: the true line should tighten toward a heavier Eagles lean if Keenum is named.
• Coach Ben Johnson expressed “confidence” in the quarterback room, but offered no concrete update: don’t bet on a positive surprise.
• The Eagles’ defense has produced seven sacks in their last two games: against a backup like Keenum, those numbers travel.
• No major sportsbook has adjusted Bears passing props or team totals yet: early action on under and Eagles defense markets is live.

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My read: the data tells you to act now, not wait for the Friday status report. The moment Fox or NBC inserts a sideline graphic about Keenum’s record as a spot starter, this line may have already moved a point or more.

The Window to Bet the Eagles Spread and the Under Is Narrow

This isn’t just about who will play quarterback. Every piece of live reporting points to a conservative approach from Chicago if Keenum starts. The playbook shrinks. Expect more conservative calls, slower tempo, and, most importantly, lower scoring potential. That applies to props, game total, and team totals alike.

The sharp move is to grab the Eagles on the spread, anything under -4 is a discount. Anything 42 or higher on the total is actionable for an under play. The Bears’ offensive props, especially if they hit the board before confirmation, are targets for fading. Defensive props on Eagles sacks and turnovers? That’s the cherry on top before the market fully adjusts.

“We trust any of our guys to execute… We’ll adjust to whoever is out there.”Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears head coach

• Bet the Eagles point spread now, before confirmation moves the line closer to kickoff.
• Hit the under at totals of 42 or higher: Keenum starting means the Bears’ offense downgrades.
• Fade all Chicago Bears passing and scoring props if they post before a starter is named.
• Target Eagles DST props (sacks, INTs) if live before official news.
• Monitor injury reports Friday-Sunday for late line moves or opportunity to middle.
• Watch for sportsbooks slow to adjust player and team total props: early birds get the edge.

Back the Eagles point spread (preferably -2.5 to -4 range if you can still get it) while the market is anchored to wishful thinking on Bears quarterbacks. Secondary: grab the under if you see totals 42 and above. Track the lines and the public moves on the Chicago Bears picks and updated spread value before locking anything in.

This article was produced with AI assistance by Ben Gale, with editorial standards and betting methodology overseen by Richard Gale (senior gambling industry executive, ThePicks founder), and reviewed by the ThePicks editorial team. All statistics sourced from live BDL API data and verified source material. All betting opinions are those of ThePicks analysts.

https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/ben-johnson-confident-bears-qb-010000765.html

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