By João Bitencourte

September 24, 2026 • 6:31 PM EDT

Updated 1 minutes ago

Washington Wizards GM Will Dawkins told Yahoo Sports today that Alex Sarr and Anthony Davis are fully expected to play on Opening Night at Capital One Arena, ending a summer of speculation about their recovery from offseason surgeries.

On the team’s injury report, Sarr is still technically listed as ‘Questionable,’ but both the GM and internal reports signal he’ll be in the starting lineup. Anthony Davis is officially ‘Probable.’ For bettors, this changes the entire calculus. Last season’s 17-65 finish means most lines will default to Wizards as big underdogs, yet that ignores a defensive overhaul if both Sarr and Davis start and play normal minutes.

Bettors looking at preseason numbers will see Sarr and Davis both missed significant time. The Wizards ranked dead last in defensive efficiency, with one of the NBA’s worst rim protection rates, and routinely bled points in the paint. That narrative collapses if Davis and Sarr are active from Game 1. Their combined presence reshapes Washington’s ability to contest shots, block drives, and offer help on the boards. Market models baking in prior-year stats (and old injuries) are missing that swing.

There’s another layer: Milwaukee is still favored to open the season, but the Bucks will be without Giannis Antetokounmpo for the first month and possibly down Bobby Portis and Tyler Herro, both of whom are still working back from off-season setbacks. The Bucks’ own Opening Night rotation is in flux, yet the lines may not reflect that chaos if injury updates don’t hit until closer to tipoff.

The Wizards, meanwhile, are playing with a full frontcourt for the first time in over a year. Trae Young (at PG) is confirmed to start but the real seismic shift is the upgrade in rim defense. Dawkins himself says the team is focused on growth, not a specific win total, but bettors gain an edge by anticipating improvement before the market does.

Sharp money is likely to target the Wizards against the spread if the line still offers more than +4. Sarr’s and Davis’s confirmed health flips what would otherwise be a no-play into serious value, especially against a depleted, still-adjusting Bucks squad. That’s where early market inefficiencies appear: if books lag behind on injury/practice status, the Wizards’ number could move sharply before tipoff once news hits the wire.

Don’t underestimate history here. The Wizards have been an easy fade for a year. This roster, with two plus defenders healthy, means regression models based on last season are obsolete for Week 1.

If You’re Betting Opening Night, Do Not Ignore the Defensive Upgrade

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Milwaukee’s Opening Night price may still lean on their 32-win finish and a historic advantage over the Wizards, but that’s not tonight’s roster. No Giannis. Two major contributors questionable. The Wizards, for the first time, have the rim protection needed to cover against playoff-caliber frontcourts. That changes props, team totals, and the point spread math in a drastic way.

Wait for firm confirmation on Sarr’s status before committing full size, he’s still listed as ‘Questionable’, but everything from the GM to practice rotations signals he’ll play. The bigger risk is minutes/role restrictions, especially after surgeries, but both are trending toward a healthy debut, according to Dawkins. Unless the market rapidly reprices, you’ll want to grab the Wizards plus whatever points the book gives before the line re-centers around their new lineup reality.

Key Developments:

• Alex Sarr is expected to play Opening Night: Wizards will start a legitimate rim protector for the first time since spring 2025, boosting their team defensive ceiling and the under.
• Anthony Davis is listed as ‘Probable’ and practicing: bettors backing opponent points in the paint props must reassess.
• Giannis Antetokounmpo sidelined for Milwaukee: Bucks lack their best interior scorer and defender, justifying a fade on the Opening Night moneyline and team total over bets.
• Wizards’ lines may still reflect last year’s 17-win debacle: early-season spreads could be 2-3 points too long if bookmakers haven’t updated for the roster flip.
• Bobby Portis and Tyler Herro still questionable: Milwaukee uncertainty compounds the value on a healthy Wizards team with a rebounding edge.

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Key Takeaways:

• Take the Wizards against the spread if listed at +4 or better for Opening Night versus the Bucks.
• Target under on Bucks’ team total until Giannis returns, especially if Portis or Herro are ruled out late.
• Monitor Sarr’s status: only pull back if his “Questionable” tag worsens near tipoff.
• Move quickly before books fully update Wizards’ defensive projections and lineups.
• Fade any team total overs on Milwaukee until they field a stable starting five.
• If Sarr and Davis combine for +4 blocks, adjust both teams’ pace/paint prop projections south.

I’m on the Wizards against the spread if you’re getting more than four points, the defensive upgrade is real, and Milwaukee’s ongoing injury issues make their Opening Night ceiling seriously capped. Watch Sarr’s status, but the value won’t last once books update their algorithms. The full track record, Opening Night projection, and updated line are on the Washington Wizards picks and season record.

“We expect growth and we expect to compete every night.”Will Dawkins, Washington Wizards GM

This article was produced with AI assistance by João Bitencourte, with editorial standards and betting methodology overseen by Richard Gale (senior gambling industry executive, ThePicks founder), and reviewed by the ThePicks editorial team. All statistics sourced from live BDL API data and verified source material. All betting opinions are those of ThePicks analysts.

https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/five-takeaways-wizards-gm-dawkins-171728853.html

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