MLB

2026 MLB Award Odds, Best Bets and MVP, Cy Young Races

By João Bitencourte

August 11, 2026 • 12:04 PM EDT

Updated 2 hours ago

2026 MLB Award Odds, Best Bets and MVP, Cy Young Races

We’re in the thick of the MLB awards season, and if you’re waiting to play your futures, the time to act is now. Less than 50 games remain for every club and the major award races look tighter than opening day jeans after a buffet. Shohei Ohtani is trying to set another all-time mark with his fifth MVP, but Pete Crow-Armstrong has actually leapfrogged the icon and taken the lead for National League MVP. On the pitching side, the American League Cy Young is suddenly a coin flip between rising star Cam Schlittler and Dylan Cease, who’s putting up a career year just when it matters most.

If you want to catch these numbers before the markets move, here’s what you need to know about the current odds. According to Yahoo Sports, Ohtani is sitting at +100 for NL MVP with Crow-Armstrong barely ahead at -120. In the AL Cy Young, Cease is at +100 and Schlittler a slight favorite at -125. These lines tell us the books are expecting a photo finish and the edge is minimal — so value right now depends on how you see the stretch run playing out.

Let’s dig into why these races are so tight — and where the smart money could be.

Why AL Cy Young Is a Two-Man Battle

This one comes down to the freshest arms and nerves. Cam Schlittler’s had more starts, wins, and better surface numbers most of the year. At first glance, he looks like the pick. But momentum swings hard in August — and Dylan Cease has found his best gear just as Schlittler is looking a little winded.

Cease: 7-5, 2.28 ERA, 184 Ks, 1.04 WHIP, 4.8 WAR in 21 starts.
Schlittler: 10-6, 2.21 ERA, 182 Ks, 0.93 WHIP, 5.9 WAR in 25 starts.

On paper, Schlittler wins on the stat sheet… but his recent outings aren’t as steady. After a gem against the Braves, he has a 3.31 ERA over his last three and fell apart in two of his past four outings. The heavy innings of his first full MLB season are catching up.

Cease, meanwhile, is peaking: he posted a filthy 1.00 ERA with a .125 OBA in July with a 3-1 record. His first August start? Seven shutout innings, 10 Ks, two hits, just one walk. Cease is pitching like a man chasing his first Cy Young, and he’s got the veteran nerve to grind through big games down the stretch.

This is why I’m siding with Cease. He faces Boston next, then the Yankees — two chances to pull ahead if he keeps dominating. Schlittler has looked human after carrying the innings load. This is when experience pays off and, yes, a hot hand matters. If you’re betting now, I’d put my money on Cease taking home his first Cy Young. He’s pitching at his apex when it matters, while Schlittler’s rookie grind is starting to show up in the box scores.

NL MVP, Ohtani vs Crow-Armstrong: Who’s Got the Edge?

The Ohtani-Crow-Armstrong duel is as even as it gets, both statistically and in the odds. Ohtani’s chasing history, looking for MVP trophy number five. Crow-Armstrong is matching him blow-for-blow — but the real story is the market flipping to PCA as favorite for the first time all summer.

Ohtani: 26 HR, 72 RBI, .940 OPS, .544 SLG, .294 AVG, 69 BB, 75 runs.
Crow-Armstrong: 26 HR, 71 RBI, .934 OPS, .545 SLG, .287 AVG, 64 BB, 82 runs.

So where’s the difference? Defense. Crow-Armstrong’s glove is earning him elite marks, and his 11.2 WAR is up there with some of the greatest MVP campaigns. Still, I’m not convinced it’s an all-time season on par with Bonds or Judge at their peak. And Ohtani has an ace up his sleeve — he’s pitching again in practice and trying to return to the bump before September ends. In 14 starts this year as a pitcher, he’s 8-2 with a 1.79 ERA and 95 strikeouts in just over 85 innings. That’s absurd value atop his already elite offensive output.

If Ohtani gets even a few more starts under his belt — and doesn’t implode — it’s going to pad his MVP case and swing back some momentum. The voters love history; nobody is more historic than Ohtani chasing five MVPs. If you want to bet Ohtani at plus money, now’s the final call. Once he’s back on the mound, those odds won’t last long. Crow-Armstrong may hold the slight edge today, but in terms of ceiling and narrative, Ohtani is the play.

Key developments worth your attention

Pete Crow-Armstrong has become the slight favorite for NL MVP, overtaking Ohtani.
Cease is pushing hard in August, posting ace-level starts for AL Cy Young.
Schlittler is piling up innings but has struggled in recent outings; rookie wall incoming?
Ohtani could be pitching again soon, boosting MVP value.
Only 50 games remain to impact award races — every outing and at-bat counts double for voters.

Key takeaways for MLB award betting

Cease has the best form among AL Cy Young candidates; worth betting now before odds drop.
Schlittler’s workload is catching up, recent outings show vulnerability.
Crow-Armstrong is elite defensively, but Ohtani’s two-way talent pushes his MVP ceiling higher.
If Ohtani pitches, his plus-money NL MVP odds will likely vanish fast.
Don’t chase PCA now; wait for odds to flip again, or take Ohtani at value before late August.
The next two starts from Cease are must-watch for AL Cy Young futures.
Futures markets adjust quickly when historic milestones are in play — be nimble.
Don’t be swayed by a single dominant performance; track trends and player fatigue into September.

More coverage: MLB news coverage and MLB analysis and odds.

Frequently Asked Questions

Pete Crow-Armstrong is currently a slight favorite for National League MVP at -120, with Shohei Ohtani close behind at +100. The odds reflect a near toss-up, but Crow-Armstrong has pulled ahead due to his defensive value and strong overall numbers.

Cam Schlittler is the slight favorite for American League Cy Young at -125, while Dylan Cease sits at +100. The race is extremely close, but Cease has the recent performance edge.

Ohtani’s two-way play gives him a high ceiling, especially if he returns to pitching late in the season. His stats are elite and plus-money odds for a generational player don’t last long when awards are on the line.

Schlittler’s recent starts have shown some fatigue, with a 3.31 ERA in his last three outings. The extra workload of his first full MLB season could make him more vulnerable than Cease in August and September.

Cease’s stellar July (1.00 ERA, .125 opponent average) and dominant start to August have pushed him into a near-even race. He’s peaking at a perfect time and has two critical starts coming up.

Most value on PCA is gone after the line moved. The smart play may be to hold for a dip, or look for Ohtani at plus money before the next swing. Market sentiment could shift fast if Ohtani pitches again.

Ohtani is returning to pitching practice, aiming for a few starts before the regular season ends. That could tip MVP voting back in his favor if he performs well on the mound.