World No. 2 Aryna Sabalenka will face Spain's Paula Badosa at the 2024 WTA Stuttgart tennis tournament, a clay-court event, in an upcoming match. This will be a second-round match in the draw, one where Sabalenka is favored. The event is also known as the 2024 Porsche Tennis Grand Prix and it has attracted some top-notch talent on the women's tour this week. Sabalenka is only priced at -275 (bet365) to win this match, even though she outranks her opponent by 91 spots as of this week's rankings. My Sabalenka vs Badosa prediction is that the former player will win this match.
Order of Play: Right-click/Open in the New Tab to check match times: subject to change
Aryna Sabalenka vs Paula Badosa Head-to-Head Series
The Sabalenka vs Badosa h2h is 3-2 in the former player's favor. Their series only dates back to the 2021 WTA season, meaning that they have faced one another quite a few times in recent years. Sabalenka has taken the last three matches in their series, including a win from Miami just a few weeks ago.
Furthermore, Sabalenka has beaten Badosa twice in Stuttgart, once in the 2023 event and once at the 2022 event. In their last three matches, Sabalenka is 6-1 on sets. Their match in Miami was not particularly close last month as Sabalenka posted a 6-3, 6-4 score.
The Draw: Right-click/Open the link in a new tab for the draw for the 2024 Porsche Tennis Grand Prix
Aryna Sabalenka's Recent Matches and Results
Sabalenka is debuting on clay in this match for her 2024 season. The last time she played on clay was back in June when she was in the French Open semifinals. She did well in Stuttgart last season, making the final. Sabalenka won the Madrid Open last season, defeating Iga Swiatek in the final. At first glance, Sabalenka looks like she is long even at odds of just -275 (bet365) for her upcoming match.
Paula Badosa's Recent Matches and Results
Badosa won her first-round match in Stuttgart over Diana Schnaider. One thing that stands out from the match is that Badosa hit 10 double faults and stayed alive in the draw. If she serves like that again, then Sabalenka will surely not be lenient with her. One key to her previous match was that Badosa won all eight of the break-point chances against her. Some would call that "clutch" but it could be viewed as lucky as well.
Badosa opened her clay-court season in Charleston in early April. She lost a straight-set match against Danielle Collins. On year-to-date rankings, Badosa is just the 59th-best player. The only tournament this season where she has won two matches was at the Australian Open.
Badosa is also in the doubles tournament in the Stuttgart event, which I think hurts her chances in the singles event. In the first round of doubles, she had a long match. I don't think she will be tired yet but I don't think it helps to be in two draws at the same event. She should be a little less than 100% while Sabalenka enters the match fresh.
Sabalenka vs Badosa Prediction: Sabalenka to win
Sabalenka at -275 (bet365) is the pick for this match. That is a betting line to work into parlays, whether for tennis or a multisport parlay.
It's not clear why she would not be a heavier favorite. Perhaps some are skeptical of her chances following just a 3-2 record in Indian Wells and Miami. Perhaps others are looking at Badosa and seeing the former World No. 2 still, instead of the current player.
But Sabalenka's three-match winning streak against Badosa, including two wins from Stuttgart, looms large for this match. Even if Badosa cuts her double faults in half relative to the last round, she would probably still lose in straight sets. Bettors looking for the odds that are closer to EVEN could take the Russian to win two to love at -110 (bet365).
Badosa vs Sabalenka prediction: Draw at the 2024 Porsche Tennis Grand Prix
The other seeded player in this section of the draw is Marketa Vondrousova. She is the No. 8 seed. I like Sabalenka's chances of getting through to the semifinals. However, Coco Gauff and Qinwen Zheng are alive in the bottom half of the draw. Sabalenka has not played her best since winning the Australian Open, in my opinion. She will need to be sharp to make the final in Stuttgart as the late-round talent promises to be thick.
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