Jasmine Paolini enjoyed a convincing straight-set victory to open her efforts in Stuttgart this week. Next, the Italian will face Tunisian tennis player Ons Jabeur at the 2024 WTA Stuttgart tennis tournament. This will be a second-round match in the draw, a tournament that is known as the 2024 Porsche Tennis Grand Prix. Paolini is priced at -125 (bet365) to win on the moneyline, odds that appear to underrate her chances based on how well she has played this season. My Paolini vs Jabeur prediction is that the former player will win this match.
Schedule of Play: Right-click/Open in the New Tab to check match times: subject to change
Jasmine Paolini vs Ons Jabeur Head-to-Head Series
The Paolini vs Jabeur h2h is 0-2 in favor of the latter player. This might be one reason why Jabeur is not considered a heavier underdog in this upcoming match. She is priced at +100 to win despite several losses to lower-ranked players this season and late in 2023.
These two players did meet in June of last season, a match Jabeur won in straight sets in Eastbourne. Jabeur also beat Paolini on clay in 2022 in Madrid. Paolini has improved her game since these matches took place while Jabeur appears to be on a bit of a decline.
The Draw: Right-click/Open the link in a new tab for the draw for the 2024 Porsche Tennis Grand Prix
Jasmine Paolini's Recent Matches and Results
Paolini trounced Sara Errani in the first round in Stuttgart, posting a 6-1, 6-0 result. Errani only had a look at one break point in the match, a point that she did not convert. Paolini won 52-19 on points.
Paolini has a title from earlier this season in a significant event on tour. But since winning in Dubai, she has entered just two events before Stuttgart, which were Indian Wells and Miami. Paolini went 3-2 in the matches in the American-based tournaments, with competitive losses when she exited each tournament. She is now turning her season over to clay.
In 2023, Paolini did not have much of a noteworthy season on clay. She made the final of the Palermo event, perhaps because she upped her game in her home country of Italy. Paolini also made the final of a 125-level event on clay, however, tournaments at that level often have some weak players in the opening rounds.
Furthermore, she won a different 125-level event one that was also played in her home country of Italy. She was an early-rounder in the bigger tournaments on clay in 2023. That included making only the round of sixty-four at the 2023 French Open.
Ons Jabeur's Recent Matches and Results
Jabeur labored to a victory over Ekaterina Alexandrova in the opening round. The match went the distance as Jabeur won a third-set tiebreaker. The Tunisian remains a Top Ten player on the women's tour for the time being. But her results, in general, have not been good in 2024. She is only the No. 75th player on the women's tour on year-to-date rankings.
Jabeur had a very good season on clay last year. She won Charleston, she made the Stuttgart semifinals, and she made the French Open quarterfinals. But this season she went out in Charleston's first round -- albeit against the tournament's eventual champion. When you look at how Jabeur has dipped over the last several months, you can only expect her to fail at matching her clay-court results this season relative to last season's.
Paolini vs Jabeur Prediction: Paolini to win
Paolini enters this match as the World No. 14. She also is the 8th-best player so far on season-to-date rankings. I think she has to be regarded as a stiffer favorite than just -125 on the moneyline (bet365). For true odds, I could put Paolini at much shorter than her actual betting odds. My recommendation is to take the Italian to win, basically treating the year-to-date rankings as the most insightful. From that point of view, this is No. 8 vs No. 75.
Jabeur vs Paolini prediction: Draw at the 2024 Porsche Tennis Grand Prix
The winner of this match will face the winner of Elena Rybakina and Veronika Kudermetova. This is a tough section of the draw but if Jabeur is not ready, then Paolini might enter the quarters with very little wear-and-tear following her easy win in the first round. She was at 33 to 1 not long ago in bet365 futures for the event. She will probably shorten when the odds update but might still be out at +2000 or so. I think she would be worth taking in that ballpark.
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