Elena Rybakina has been idle on the WTA Tour since losing in the Miami final. But she is back in action in Germany this week, where she will face Veronika Kudermetova at the 2024 WTA Stuttgart event. This will be a second-round match in the draw, which is also known as the 2024 Porsche Tennis Grand Prix. Rybakina, who is opening her clay-court season with this match, is priced at -400 (bet365) on the moneyline. My Rybakina vs Kudermetova prediction focuses on the underdog's potential in this match.
Schedule of Play: Right-click/Open in the New Tab to check match times: subject to change
Elena Rybakina vs Veronika Kudermetova Head-to-Head Series
The Rybakina vs Kudermetova h2h is 3-0 in favor of the former player. The sets are 6-1 in Rybakina's favor in this series. However, their most recent match dates to 2021. Also, they have not played a clay-court match in their history, which goes back to the 2018 season.
This is a match between two highly-ranked players. Kudermetova is still ranked 19th on tour. Meanwhile, Rybakina is the World No. 4. On year-to-date rankings, Rybakina is the 2nd-best player, behind only Iga Swiatek. Meanwhile, Kudermetova is well below that mark, in the No. 37 position. However, those year-to-date rankings will be mainly reflective of hard-court results.
The Draw: Right-click/Open the link in a new tab for the draw for the 2024 Porsche Tennis Grand Prix
Elena Rybakina's Recent Matches and Results
Rybakina went 5-1 in her matches in Miami, losing the final to Danielle Collins. But she has not played a clay-court match since the 2023 French Open, where she lost in the third round. Last season, her clay-court results were a bit bipolar. She won the title in Rome but only won three matches combined in the other events she entered. That included a win at ATP Stuttgart in the round of 32.
One thing that stands out from her title in Rome is that three of her six matches in the event were won via retirement. That included a win over Iga Swiatek in the quarters and a win in the final over Anhelina Kalinina. Rybakina was the last player standing in the draw but it's a rare event where you benefit from so many retirements.
Veronika Kudermetova's Recent Matches and Results
Kudermetova won her opening-round match as a mild favorite over Barbora Krejcikova. This was a long 32-game match that went to 6-4 in Kudermetova's favor in the final set. Previously, Kudermetova was in the Charleston draw earlier this month. She went 2-1 in that draw, losing to Maria Sakkari in the quarterfinals.
The Czech player did beat Beatriz Haddad Maia in the tournament. Last season, Kudermetova was not a bad clay-court player. She made the semifinals in both Rome and Madrid. She has struggled this season at times but maybe Kudermetova's fortunes will improve as the bulk of her matches will be on dirt in the weeks and months ahead.
Rybakina vs Kudermetova Prediction: Kudermetova +4.5 games
There is a chance that Rybakina could be overrated in this match. Last season, she had a loss to Anna Kalinskaya, who was ranked 62nd at the time of their match. At -400 (bet365), bettors should be cautious here. That's especially the case since Rybakina is opening her clay-court season and could be rusty on the surface.
Bettors should be on board with Kudermetova's game handicap in this match at +4.5 and odds of -120 (bet365). That handicap would have won in two of three of their head-to-heads. Also, I like that Kudermetova is 3-1 on clay this month, including a win over a Top 20 player.
Kudermetova vs Rybakina prediction: Draw at the 2024 Porsche Tennis Grand Prix
The winner of this match will face either Jasmine Paolini or Ons Jabeur. Paolini did have an impressive start to the tournament, posting a win with just one dropped game. This half of the draw also has Iga Swiatek in it.
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