The odds for the 2024 French Open at Roland Garros in Paris, France look wrong for men's singles. The event is still on the far horizon, however, it's not that far off anymore. The starting date for the qualifying draw will be Monday, May 20th, 2024. As of March 2nd, the betting favorite to win the clay-court Grand Slam is Carlos Alcaraz, a semifinalist from last season. However, at +150 the Spaniard is an incredibly tough sell. Meanwhile, the other top favorites could be presented as overrated as well. Here's a look at the futures odds for Roland Garros 2024 with more than just a touch of skepticism for the players at the high end of the list.
2024 French Open Odds: Betting Favorites (bet365)
Carlos Alcaraz is the top favorite. However, his season-to-date has not been impressive.
When we last saw Alcaraz play, he rolled his ankle shortly after warmups in the first round of the Rio de Janeiro draw. Some might write the ensuing loss off as bad luck but Alcaraz was a straight-sets casualty on clay in Buenos Aires, losing to Nicolas Jarry.
Alcaraz has not won a title since Wimbledon 2023. For a player ranked as highly as him, that is a significant drought, especially since he has entered a lot of small events.
Even if the Spaniard picks a title up before the French Open, odds of +150 are more suited for a defending champion that's in form. Alcaraz doesn't fit that bill at all as he has not made the final at Roland Garros, nor has been played up to his ranking since July. If you aren't winning the small tournaments, don't expect to win the big ones. On that note, here are the betting odds for the 2024 French Open as of March 2nd, 2024.
- Carlos Alcaraz +150
- Novak Djokovic +225
- Rafael Nadal +400
- Jannik Sinner +450
- Holger Rune +800
- Daniil Medvedev +1400
- Casper Ruud +1600
- Alexander Zverev +1600
What's wrong with everybody in the list?
I don't see Djokovic's odds as particularly valuable either. His bread-and-butter has always been the Australian Open. His slight build and low body weight, even relative to tennis players, has always done well in the heat. I understand that he is the defending champion at Roland Garros but it is still his worst Grand Slam by title counts. Djokovic has never defended a title at Roland Garros. My thinking with the Serb is if he can't cross the finish line at Melbourne Park, don't expect him to cross the finish line at Roland Garros as these are respective best and worst Grand Slam events for him.
Will Rafael Nadal even play?
Rafael Nadal as the third favorite could be looked at as a joke. He has won the tournament fourteen times but he will turn 38 years old during this edition of the Grand Slam. He has barely played any matches lately, with just three total in the last fourteen months. If he was on the comeback trail in January, it was short-lived. He went 2-1 with a loss to Jordan Thompson before pulling out of the Australian Open with a hip muscle injury.
If he can't grind it out in the Masters Series events for a title, then you have to wonder how far off retirement is for the King of Clay. He is a player that might not even be in the draw. How bettors can be taking him down to +400 is perplexing. My thinking with Nadal is that if he is in the main draw in full health, then he would be +600 under those conditions. At present, he can only be considered a long shot.
Jannik Sinner won the Australian Open but....
Jannik Sinner at +450 isn't a great bet. The World No. 3 has won 12 titles in his career, including Rotterdam and Melbourne Park this season. But all of his titles are on the cement except for one. He claimed a title on the dirt at Umag in 2022, a tournament that is far-far-far below the standard of the French Open. Bettors should not be interested in Sinner at +450 at all.
However, he is one of my favorites, albeit at longer odds, because of the improvements he has shown. Also, bettors should be aware that Sinner is the No. 1 player in the world for clay-court return-of-serve stats for the last 52 weeks, according to the ATP's stats. If he improves holding his own serve in the clay-court Masters Series draws, then he could add Roland Garros to his title count.
True Favorites for the title at Roland Garros 2024
This is where I would put my own top-eight players for the French Open title as of March 2nd, 2024. I consider the tournament to be much more wide open than the betting odds implications.
For instance, my favorite, Casper Ruud, is out at +550 for my true odds. I don't know how everyone is looking further than Ruud, the runner-up for two years running. Unlike Alcaraz, Ruud has started the season sharply, including on the hardcourt surface. Unlike, Nadal and Djokovic, Ruud is still in his prime with a Grand Slam window that should be open for a few more years.
- Casper Ruud +550*
- Jannik Sinner +600
- Carlos Alcaraz +800 (co-second favorite)
- Alexander Zverev +900
- Novak Djokovic +1000
- Daniil Medvedev +1400
- Sebastian Baez +1500
- Andrey Rublev +2000
Players of interest not in the list, include Alex de Minaur, Rafael Nadal, Facundo Diaz Acosta, Nicolas Jarry, and Karen Khachanov. I will be revisiting this article from time to time in the weeks and months ahead. For betting tips, Ruud at +1600 is good to go as is Zverev at the same price. Rublev at +4000 is a small value bet. Meanwhile, Baez is at +10000 but could shorten soon.
*true odds are my opinion on what the odds should be, not actual betting odds
