Roberto Bautista Agut is into the semifinals of a challenger draw this week. He has a reasonable shot at the title on Sunday with a possible final against a fellow Spaniard, Albert Ramos-Vinolas. But first, Bautista Agut will face Denis Yevseyev at the 2023 Valencia Challenger (clay courts) in a semifinal match in the tournament, one that is also known as the 2023 Coupa Faulcombridge. My Bautista Agut vs Yevseyev prediction is that the former will get the first break of serve in the match.
Order of Play: Right-click/Open in the New Tab to check match times: subject to change
Roberto Bautista Agut vs Denis Yevseyev Head-to-Head Series
The Bautista Agut vs Yevseyev h2h is 0-0 as these two players have never met in a challenger match or ATP Tour match. Bautista Agut is the much higher-ranked player, entering this match as the World No. 62. He does remain an important player in some of the smaller tour-level events these days, let alone the challengers. Meanwhile, Yevseyev entered the week as the World No. 226 and he also entered the week as a player that I had never heard of before.
Yeseyev is thirty years old, he appears to be wearing sweater-weather clothing in his ATP profile picture when everyone else wears a t-shirt, and he is currently at his career high for an ATP ranking at No. 226. Therein lays the reason I've not heard of him before but I won't be caught off-guard here. Any time a player is at his career-high ranking you have to look at them carefully. There is no telling just how far they might be rising.
Yeseyev's recent matches
Yeseyev came through qualifiers in Valencia. He is 8-0 in sets played in the tournament, which is impressive enough to suggest that he could be heading toward the Top 150 soon. He will crack the Top 200 on Monday for the first time in his career. Making the semifinals in Valencia is a major achievement for a player of his ranking.
He also had some drawluck in Valencia, which is very important to note. He received a win via a walkover in the round of sixteen. That surely will have helped him keep his energy levels high. When it comes to most players ranked outside of the Top 200, a big difference between them and the higher-ranked players is conditioning. That he received a walkover does redeem his chances a little for the upcoming semifinal.
Looking back a little, Yeseyev was in the Shanghai Masters thanks to two qualifying wins. He also beat Fabio Fognini in the first round of a challenger in China. Further back, he won a title in Astana on the challenger circuit in July. Judging by his results, some kind of light seemed to turn on that month, or maybe some kind of ailment healed. He has been a better player in recent months than ever before.
The Draw: Right-click/Open in the New Tab for the draw for the 2023 Coupa Faulcombridge
Bautista Agut is -700 to win this match, which overrates him. But the former Top Ten player will know for sure not to take Yeseyev lightly. Even if you treat Yeseyev as on par with something like the World No. 140 right now, Bautista Agut doesn't lose clay-court matches to players ranked that low. Also, Yeseyev's challenger title was in a hard-court event. You would put Bautista Agut at about -575 for this match, in my opinion.
Bautista Agut vs Yevseyev Prediction: First Break of Serve?
You certainly would not take -700 here, the moneyline odds on Bautista Agut (bet365). The best option available is to back Bautista Agut for the first break of serve at -250 (bet365). He actually scores in the Top 30 for the ATP's Serve Rating statistic so he will be hard to break himself. Going up against an inexperienced player, Yevseyev should be nervous and an early break against him will likely result.
Furthermore, Valencia is a tournament hosted in Spain and that is Bautista Agut's home country. Yevseyev might need to settle into this match due to his inexperience and the early games should go his opponent's way accordingly, if only due to nervousness.
Additional reading: All previews for upcoming tennis matches!
