Las Vegas, Nevada will host Super Bowl LVIII at Allegiant Stadium on Sunday, February 11th, 2024. The Kansas City defeated the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship Game. Meanwhile, the San Francisco 49ers defeated the Detroit Lions in the NFC Championship Game. That set up a KC vs SF final and the latter team opened as the slight favorites at just -1.0 (bet365) for opening odds. The early betting action seemingly favored the 49ers, as they are now -2.0 heading into February 8th. They have held at that spread since the early days after the conference championships.
The San Francisco 49ers have a forecast 64% chance to win against The Kansas City Chiefs with a spread of -4.5/4.5 and an over/under of 49.0. The San Francisco 49ers are 0 - 0 against The Kansas City Chiefs in the 2023-24 Season.— Sunday, February 11th San Francisco 49ers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Super Bowl Spreads Can Change A Lot
Any NFL football game will have a spread that is subject to change. But the Super Bowl has a lot of betting action involved, making the spread a little bit more volatile.
It is not usual at all for the odds to swing one way or another over the fortnight between the Super Bowl and the conference championships.
When game time nears, I think Patrick Mahomes as the QB for KC will be a bigger draw for bets than Brock Purdy for the 49ers. Mahomes is the more famous player and that could affect the kind of fan that only tunes in for the big games. For that fan, the fame of the players involved will affect the betting trends.
In this article, I will be looking at numerous markets for the 2024 Super Bowl. The NFL championship game is always a betting extravaganza whether you like popular markets or betting props.
Super Bowl LVIII: Game Preview
The two teams that will be in the Super Bowl are the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers. The game will be on February 11th, 2024 at 6:30 PM ET (3:30 PM PT).
Country music star and living legend Reba McEntire will sing the national anthem. Other musical talents will include Post Malone and Andra Day, artists who will be a part of the pregame as well.
Celebrity gossip surrounding the game has a lot to do with Taylor Swift. She has a concert booked in Tokyo close to the Super Bowl and will be making a trans-Pacific flight to Vegas to watch her boyfriend, Travis Kelce, play in the big game. Her tight schedule between Japan and Vegas made some news headlines just after the conference championships were played.
Super Bowl Betting: Frivolous Markets
The Super Bowl is a betting extravaganza. One popular market with Super Bowl frivolities is how long the national anthem performance will last. However, in the past, there have often been all kinds of different markets about the playing of the Star-Spangled Banner.
What player will be shown on TV first during the national anthem? What color will Reba McEntire's clothes be? These are the kinds of betting markets that sportsbooks usually provide markets on. In some cases, it can feel like "your guess is as good as mine" with claims to be a betting authority on wardrobe choice seemingly ridiculous.
Bettors Beware of Tipsters That Know the Coin Toss Result
After the singing of the national anthem, there will be a coin toss. There will be betting odds available on the coin toss for sure as there always are. Usually, you can expect -110 on either heads or tails but sometimes the sportsbooks go down to -105. I've seen sportsbooks offer EVEN odds for each result of the coin toss, meaning the sportsbook is just forsaking any kind of profit with the betting line. I always advise bettors never to trust a 'tipster' who claims to know whether the coin toss will be heads or tails. You'll know something is up if the Hulett brothers are contracted for the game.
Super Bowl LVIII Half-time Show Betting Markets
Usher, an R&B and pop music artist, will perform the half-time show. There will be betting odds on all kinds of things related to his performance. The color of his clothing is one market that you can expect. You can also expect markets on how many songs will be played and which song will come first. If you are betting on these kinds of markets and looking for tipsters, you are probably better off with the kind of tipsters that focus on the entertainment industry. I don't know that being a football guru makes you an expert on Usher or musical performances.
Super Bowl LVIII Predictions - Popular Betting Prop Markets
The popular markets will always be the moneyline, the spread, and the OVER/UNDER for total points in any Super Bowl. However, the Super Bowl has tons of other markets -- literally in the hundreds. I am constructing a 30-market tipping chart for the 2023-24 Super Bowl, which is toward the bottom of this article.
Super Bowl LVIII MVP markets
Another popular market is the Super Bowl MVP market. This is a market that you can bet on all season long. The winner of the Super Bowl MVP is usually the quarterback on the winning team. If you are betting on this market, then you should be aware of some historical precedents.
In the last ten years, six of the Super Bowl MVPs have fit the bill just mentioned: they were the QBs on the winning team. The other four Super Bowl MVPs were either wide receivers or linebackers. Nobody has won the MVP on the losing team since 1971, 53 years ago now. That is important to note: betting on the MVP could be viewed as a bet on the winning team in part. The favorite to win the Super Bowl MVP is Patrick Mahomes at +110 -- however, his team is a +1.5 underdog (bet365). You should not be betting on Mahomes unless you think that KC will win the game. A losing player getting the MVP would break a 53-year trend.
Heading into the conference finals, the MVP betting favorite was Lamar Jackson at +200 (bet365) but he is eliminated. He was followed by Brock Purdy at +320, a player who is now +225 (January 29th, 2024). Christian McCaffrey is the third favorite at +400 and therein lies the reason why San Francisco is the betting favorite to win the Super Bowl but their QB1 is the second favorite for the MVP. The 49ers contingent is split between their two best players.
A running back has not won the Super Bowl MVP since 1998 when Terrell Davis won. That drought of running back MVPs calls into question the value on McCaffrey at just 4 to 1. One plausible explanation for the drought is that defensive coordinators have two weeks to prepare for the final NFL game. I would suggest that they, the defensive coordinators, have an easier time stopping running backs than they do stopping wide receivers and quarterbacks. These positions routinely the Super Bowl MVP, especially the latter players.
Super Bowl LVIII: Betting Tips
Ahead of the conference championships, there were some futures markets open. I tipped a defensive player to win the MVP (ie. ANY defensive player) at odds of 33 to 1 (bet365). Those odds shortened to 25 to 1 as of January 29th, 2024.
What would it take for a defensive player to win the MVP? Two INTs for one player would help. But a look back at the 2016 Super Bowl shows that Von Miller did it with 2.5 sacks in the game. Malcolm Smith had six tackles en route to winning the 2014 Super Bowl MVP and a 69-yard pick-six.
I will be building a 30-pick chart below. For main markets, I am looking at the Chiefs to win either on the moneyline or spread.
Super Bowl LVIII Betting Chart (all odds from bet365)
| Market | Odds | Prediction/recommendation (date of recommendation) |
| Moneyline | Chiefs +105 49ers -125 As of January 29th, 2024 | Chiefs at +105 (Jan 29) Chiefs +110 (Jan 31) |
| Spread | Chiefs +2.0 (-110) 49ers -2.0 (-110) January 29th, 2024 | Chiefs at +2.0 (Feb 8) |
| Total Points | 47.5 OVER/UNDER at -110 January 29th, 2024 | UNDER 47.5 (Feb 8) |
| Game to Go to Overtime | Yes +900 No -1800 January 29th, 2024 | Yes +900 |
| TD Scorers (Anytime) | Numerous Players January 29th, 2024 | Patrick Mahomes +400 Brock Purdy +600 |
| First TD Scorer | Numerous Players January 29th, 2024 | Patrick Mahomes +2500 Brock Purdy +3300 |
| Last TD Scorer | Numerous Players January 29th, 2024 | Patrick Mahomes +2500 Brock Purdy +3300 |
| Brock Purdy Passing Yards | 248.5 February 8th, 2024 | UNDER -110 |
| Patrick Mahomes' Passing Yards | 261.5 February 8th, 2024 | OVER -110 |
| Travis Kelce's Receiving Yards | 71.5 February 8th, 2024 | OVER -110 |
| Christian McCaffrey's Rushing Yards | 90.5 February 8th, 2024 | OVER -110 |
| Isiah Pacheco's Rushing Yards | 67.5 February 8th, 2024 | UNDER -110 |
| Brock Purdy Passing Touchdowns | 1.5 February 8th, 2024 | UNDER +100 |
| Patrick Mahomes Passing Touchdowns | 1.5 February 8th, 2024 | OVER -150 |
| Correct Score | Chiefs 28, 49ers 21 | 300 to 1 |
| Brock Purdy's Interceptions | 0.5 February 8th, 2024 | OVER -130 |
| Patrick Mahomes' Interceptions | 0.5 February 8th, 2024 | UNDER -115 |
| Super Bowl LVIII Betting Odds | Any Defensive Player | Tipped on January 28th, 2024 at 33 to 1 |
| Reba McEntire's National Anthem Times | SEE THE FULL ARTICLE AND USE ADVISED TIME ESTIMATION ACCORDINGLY |
Thoughts on How The Game Will Go
My thinking with this game is that Patrick Mahomes is the man for the moment. His presence in the game should tilt things KC"s way in my opinion. He certainly won't get nervous for the game, even if he did not have the best regular season of his career. I would advise bettors NOT to focus on Mahomes' and the fact that other players had a more successful regular season. Instead, assume that he will bring a lot more nerve to the table than his counterpart, Brock Purdy, for the championship game. That assumption affected a lot of my tipping in the chart above.
