September 24, 2026 • 8:42 AM EDT
Updated 56 minutes ago
Myles Garrett’s IR Move Opens Up Broncos’ Path for Sunday
Myles Garrett, the Los Angeles Rams’ marquee addition and defensive centerpiece, was placed on injured reserve on Thursday. He’ll miss at least four games, starting with the Rams’ home date against the Denver Broncos. That’s not just a headline injury, it’s a shift in the entire betting calculus for this game.
Live injury data confirms it. Garrett anchors a defense that gave up 174 rushing yards to the San Francisco 49ers the last time he missed significant snaps. The Rams’ D-line wasn’t deep to begin with, and their linebacker depth has been thinned by weeks of bumps and bruises. Denver, meanwhile, is coming off a two-game win streak powered by a resurgent ground game, breaking the 100-yard mark even with backfield injuries.
The market’s lagging behind. Odds and totals haven’t fully accounted for the hole Garrett leaves. The Rams have been priced as if their front seven remains intact. There’s a gap, one that Denver’s run game is about to burst through. That’s your edge: Broncos team total overs, full game over, and live props on Denver rushing outputs are all sitting in value territory right now.
You’ll want to move quickly. Once closing line syndrome hits and sharps hammer the over, these numbers will adjust sharply. Right now the public’s still thinking about “that Rams D” from September, not the battered, Garrett-less version Denver will face. The way I see it: this is the kind of injury shockwave that re-shapes a Sunday slate.
On the Broncos’ side? Even with O-line and RB injuries, their plan shouldn’t change. Against Jacksonville, the Broncos committed to the run, holding the ball and controlling tempo despite missing key rushers. The Rams, without Garrett, haven’t shown they can stop a committed attack. Denver may have red-zone and third-down issues, but they won’t need perfect efficiency if the box is moving backward every time they hand it off.
This is one of those rare spots: you can see the mispricing before the books fix it. When a defensive superstar like Garrett exits, especially on a unit already teetering, you back the other side’s ground attack and scoring outputs before the market scrambles. That’s the angle, the edge, and the way to play Sunday’s Broncos-Rams showdown.
The Rams Will Struggle to Replace Garrett, and the Numbers Prove It
One look at the Rams’ recent tape shows just how vital Garrett was. Without him, backs like Christian McCaffrey ripped through Los Angeles for huge chunks. Even bottom-half run teams have pushed the Rams around up front since his arrival. There’s no one-for-one replacement: the next man up is a rotational end who’s never posted more than two run stops in a game.
Denver’s offensive line, battered though it may be, is physical and built to lean on a depleted front. Expect heavier personnel, two tight end sets, and a game script that rides the run as long as it’s profitable. Broncos’ late-game numbers against Jacksonville, over 5 yards a carry after halftime, suggest they’re trending in the right direction at the perfect moment.
Related: Myles Garrett’s Absence Changes Rams-Broncos Line: Sunday NFL Betting Implication
What does this mean for bettors? You target the overs: game total, Broncos’ team total, and any available rushing yard or TD props for Denver’s lead back (and check alt lines if you think it gets out of hand). The Rams aren’t built to win a shootout if they fall behind, so live-betting Denver spread or moneyline becomes interesting if the Broncos’ first few drives set the tone.
Key Developments That Matter for Every Bet
- Myles Garrett placed on IR on Thursday: Rams drop from top-10 run defense to bottom-third by projection, Broncos ground overs now hold value.
- Rams gave up 174 rushing yards to the 49ers without Garrett: Denver’s run plan is strengthened by this trend, expect a higher team total.
- Broncos broke 100 rushing yards behind a patchwork backfield in Jacksonville: Even with RB injuries, Denver’s identity is clear, keep the ground game rolling.
- Rams’ front seven now features a backup rotation at multiple spots: In-play props on late-game Broncos rushing may carry extra value if Los Angeles’ defense tires.
- Live market data shows little immediate adjustment after Garrett’s injury: Early bettors can still attack mispriced totals and props before repricing.
Key Takeaways for Bettors
- Back the Broncos team total over before the line moves to account for Garrett’s absence.
- Target Broncos primary rushing overs (yards and touchdowns) with conviction, trend and context support.
- Lean game total over: Rams’ defense is now a liability, and Denver’s red-zone struggles could still yield points.
- If Broncos open as a short dog, the spread becomes playable, especially if live betting shows early run dominance.
- Look for alternate team rushing lines if the main number is juiced: the ceiling is higher than the market projects.
- Monitor late reports on Broncos O-line health, but current risk doesn’t outweigh edge created by Rams injuries.
- Do not chase Rams moneyline or defense-focused props, sharp money is all on Denver’s attack.
The way I’m playing it: I’m on the Broncos team total over and rushing props over, with game total as fallback if markets move. This is a rare spot where cluster injuries and superstar absences combine for real, actionable mispricing. The updated lines and my full Denver Broncos picks record are updated right now on the Denver Broncos picks and season record.
“Losing a presence like Garrett, it changes everything up front.”Sean McVay, Los Angeles Rams head coach
This article was produced with AI assistance by Ben Gale, with editorial standards and betting methodology overseen by Richard Gale (senior gambling industry executive, ThePicks founder), and reviewed by the ThePicks editorial team. All statistics sourced from live BDL API data and verified source material. All betting opinions are those of ThePicks analysts.
https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/denver-broncos-beat-los-angeles-120000813.html
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