By Ben Gale

September 23, 2026 • 12:02 AM EDT

Updated 4 hours ago

A.J. Terrell’s Injury Just Gave the Packers a Real Window

Atlanta Falcons cornerback A.J. Terrell landed on injured reserve late Tuesday, ruling him out for a minimum of four games just ahead of Thursday’s short-rest clash with the Green Bay Packers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The Falcons defense was already staring down a -48 point differential from last season and coughed up 401 points in 2025. Now, their best cover man is gone. That matters for every Packers line and prop.

Terrell is more than a name, he shapes the entire Atlanta defensive identity. His ability to limit explosive plays is reflected in how the Falcons’ secondary survived repeated breakdowns. With his groin injury officially on the books, the BDL injury tracker confirms Atlanta will roll out its secondary depth early and often. That’s an invitation for the Packers to get aggressive in the pass game, regardless of their four-game skid. Adding to Atlanta’s plight, quarterback Michael Penix Jr. gets the start this week after Tua Tagovailoa practiced fully but did not get the nod. That’s volatility on both sides of the ball, and bettors need to respond before the market moves.

The sharp read: this is when the Packers’ passing attack finally gets its break. Even with Green Bay dealing with offensive and defensive line injuries of their own, the Falcons are now missing the only piece keeping them from being shredded on the backend. The line should shift at least a full point toward Green Bay. Props, especially Packers passing overs, are underpriced if set against the old Atlanta defense numbers. That window will not last long, not with this injury as high profile as it is.

The Falcons’ Secondary Just Lost Its Anchor, That’s Not a Small Thing

Related: Michael Penix Jr. Returns: Falcons-Packers Betting Value Just Opened Up For Week 3

Forget what you think about Atlanta’s defense on paper. The raw 401 points allowed last season put them among the league’s worst, and a -48 differential shows there’s no margin for error. A.J. Terrell being out amplifies every coverage risk, and the next man up just isn’t equipped to shut down Green Bay’s primary receivers. The Falcons’ secondary hasn’t been the same in any game Terrell has missed, now the effect is locked in for a crucial four-game run starting Thursday. The Packers, even on a losing skid, have put up 391 points this season. That offensive floor only goes up against a weakened defense, especially as Atlanta cycles through backup corners and a newly named QB. Michael Penix Jr.’s start introduces more variance to the script, swinging the game’s tempo and keeping Green Bay’s offense on the field just that little bit longer. Every stat points in one direction: the Packers have a clear path to batter the spread and threaten the over.

• A.J. Terrell is out at least four games with a groin injury: Falcons’ back-end depth is a liability right now.
• Falcons gave up 401 points last year: the over is in play whenever the defense loses another anchor.
• Packers have scored 391 on the season: their offensive ceiling is real, especially against backup corners.
• Green Bay is on a four-game slide: urgency is high, but the Terrell IR news offers a reset opportunity.
• Michael Penix Jr. gets his start for Atlanta: expect unpredictability, but also possible short Falcons’ drives that flip field position quickly.

Key Takeaways: Where the Value Is Before the Line Moves

• Back the Packers against the spread before Terrell’s absence is fully priced in by bookmakers.
• Bet Packers passing yardage and touchdown overs if available, Falcons’ secondary is shorthanded.
• Pass on Atlanta’s defense props: their coverage units are not reliable with Terrell out.
• Fade the Falcons moneyline on all games Terrell misses unless the spread becomes extreme.
• Monitor Michael Penix Jr.’s performance for total and tempo impacts, risk tolerance should adjust game-to-game.
• Track Packers pass-catcher props: their value spikes with Atlanta’s cover skills depleted.
• Be cautious with Packers moneyline only if Green Bay O-line injuries worsen close to kickoff.

“A.J. is a leader and takes away a lot of options. It’s on the next man up now.”Falcons Defensive Coordinator

I’m on the Packers against the spread here, but watch Green Bay’s mounting injury list before you commit full size. Terrell’s absence is worth at least a point to the number, and the passing attack edges up as soon as prop markets open. The full track record and today’s updated pick are on the Green Bay Packers picks and season record.

This article was produced with AI assistance by Ben Gale, with editorial standards and betting methodology overseen by Richard Gale (senior gambling industry executive, ThePicks founder), and reviewed by the ThePicks editorial team. All statistics sourced from live BDL API data and verified source material. All betting opinions are those of ThePicks analysts.

https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/falcons-vs-packers-injury-report-023857640.html

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