By Pritish Ganguly

September 14, 2026 • 12:02 PM EDT

Updated 2 hours ago

Ohtani’s Injury Shakes Up the Dodgers: The Smart Money Shifts to Team Total Unders

Shohei Ohtani was placed on the 15-day injured list Friday, September 13, at Dodger Stadium, sidelining the Dodgers’ biggest bat right as they hit the home stretch. The club moved fast, calling up Josue De Paula and plugging him directly into the DH spot for the weekend.

The numbers are abrupt: Ohtani is out until at least September 26. The Dodgers lost two consecutive games in Miami after an eight-game win streak, with Freddie Freeman banged up and slumping (.230 last week) and offensive depth thin. Josue De Paula, a 19-year-old rookie, has made the most of his first 11 major league at-bats: 6 hits, 1 home run, a double, and six times on base. He’s injected life into the order, but one prospect doesn’t replace Ohtani’s MVP impact overnight.

Bettors facing the new-look Dodgers need to recalculate immediately. The market will shave half a run or more off the Dodgers’ team totals, but even that might underprice the actual impact. Public perception still clings to the 90-win record and the sight of Mookie Betts and Will Smith surging. But so much of the recent run production, 6 runs per game last week, has come from streaky performance at the top of the order. Freeman isn’t right. Gavin Lux and Miguel Rojas are nursing minor injuries. The bottom half of the lineup is now a live liability for over bettors.

De Paula’s Hot Start Is a Rare OVER Opportunity, But Fading the Team Offense Is the Real Play

Related: Rays vs Athletics Today: Injuries Push Tampa Bay Run Line and Over Into Clear Value Territory

Josue De Paula’s weekend numbers are jumping off the page. At 6-for-11 with a home run and two walks, he’s getting both at-bats and prime lineup spots in an injury-plagued roster. Sportsbooks have to react, usually setting soft lines early in a prospect’s run before sharp action corrects the price. While Ohtani sits, De Paula props, especially H+R+RBI and total bases, have clear short-term OVER value.

The main angle, though, isn’t a rookie heater: it’s the Dodgers’ team run total. Strip Ohtani’s 1.066 OPS from the lineup and you don’t just lose raw power, you lose the threat that tilts a pitching plan for a full nine innings. Opposing starters can attack with fewer matchup fears, and relievers no longer have to pitch around the biggest bat in baseball. When you scrape away the star glow, the Dodgers have now dropped two straight, and the offense is top-heavy with real question marks below the three-hole.

• Shohei Ohtani’s IL stint sidelines his .304, 44 HR bat through September 26: Dodgers team total ceiling drops at least half a run per game.
• Josue De Paula is 6-for-11 in his first three games: sportsbooks may underprice his props early this week.
• Freddie Freeman is slumping and banged up (.230 over last 7 games), with no Ohtani protection: fade his RBI/total base props.
• Dodgers scored 6.0 R/G last week but are coming off two losses and injuries to depth pieces: public still overcredits the offense.
• Multiple Dodgers regulars (Lux, Rojas) are nursing minor injuries: bottom-half of batting order is now a weak link for total runs.

The Dodgers Are Still Dangerous, But the Market Is Slow to Adjust

The way I see it: the Dodgers’ 90-59 record buys them too much credit after a star injury like this. The books won’t totally flatten the team total lines after only two games without Ohtani. But the numbers say there’s already erosion: Miami just handled Los Angeles back-to-back, chasing their shaky back end. Until Freeman proves healthy and another bat emerges, I’ll fade the Dodgers’ full-game run total and pounce on De Paula prop overs until oddsmakers adjust. The full season record and daily picks update are on the Los Angeles Dodgers picks and season record.

“I appreciate the opportunity, but nobody can replace Shohei. I just want to help the team.”Josue De Paula, Los Angeles Dodgers DH

This article was produced with AI assistance by Pritish Ganguly, with editorial standards and betting methodology overseen by Richard Gale (senior gambling industry executive, ThePicks founder), and reviewed by the ThePicks editorial team. All statistics sourced from live BDL API data and verified source material. All betting opinions are those of ThePicks analysts.

https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/dodgers-week-25-shohei-ohtani-153300721.html

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