The ATP Houston 2024 draw will have an All-American quarterfinal on Friday. Ben Shelton will face Brandon Nakashima at the 2024 Fayez Sarofim & Co. U.S. Men's Clay Court Championship. Shelton is only priced as a small favorite in the match at -138 with bet365 on the moneyline. He has yet to make a big name for himself on the clay court surface at this early stage of his career. But, at first glance, the odds do look long as Shelton has drawn a much lower-ranked player in the Houston draw. My Shelton vs Nakashima prediction is that the former player will win this match.
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Ben Shelton vs Brandon Nakashima Head-to-Head Series
The Shelton vs Nakashima h2h is 0-0 as these two players have not faced one another before. Shelton enters as the World No. 16 while Nakashima is the World No. 92. But perhaps the year-to-date rankings have factored in to make Nakashima just a small underdog. From that point of view, the difference between the two players is not immense. Shelton is No. 21 so far this season while Nakashima is No. 33.
Ben Shelton's Recent Matches and Results
Shelton beat Zizou Berg in the first round. The match went to three sets after Shelton lost the first set. He went just 3-4 on aces to double-faults while winning 67% of his service points. The line score was 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 as he turned things up a notch after losing the first set.
Last season, Shelton did not have a great clay court season. He went out early in each tour-level event he entered. Shelton is one of the big servers on tour and clay is known to slow down such players.
But even on the hard courts lately, Shelton has not been stellar. The American player is a little down relative to what we saw late last season, when he won a title in Tokyo. Shelton went just 3-2 in Indian Wells and Miami combined. With lots of mid-tournament exits this season so far, he has been a bit of a disappointment.
Brandon Nakashima's Recent Matches and Results
Nakashima has played in two rounds in Houston. He is 4-0 on sets played, thus far. On games, he is 24-10 which is likely another reason that he is only considered a small underdog in this match. Nakashima has mainly been cleaning up on the Challenger tours this season. He has one title from Spain on that circuit to go with some other late-round results. Last season on clay, he had one good result, making the semifinals in Lyon. In that event, he beat Tommy Paul.
Shelton vs Nakashima Prediction: Shelton wins
You have to believe that Shelton will win this match, although it doesn't look like it will be easy. He will be a little better on clay now that he has a recent match under his belt.
At -138, I think bettors should be sticking with Shelton (bet365). Nakashima's strong results lately are only on the Challenger circuit. At Miami and Indian Wells, he went just 1-2 so he has only been cleaning up on the low-ranked players. For instance, when he won the title in Spain, he did not face anyone in the Top 100.
Nakashima seems to be an improving player but he stumbled against Alejandro Tabilo and Jiri Lehecka in Miami and Indian Wells respectively. I think we will see more another stumble against Shelton in this upcoming match.
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