Ben Shelton is in the hunt for his second career ATP title on Sunday. The American, who won the 2023 ATP Tokyo draw, will face Frances Tiafoe at the 2024 ATP Houston tennis tournament in the upcoming championship match. Shelton, who has never won a clay court title before, is priced at -125 (bet365) to win the final. Meanwhile, Tiafoe, who is the defending champion in the Houston draw, is at EVEN odds. My Shelton vs Tiafoe prediction is that the former player, Shelton, will win this match for his second career ATP title.
Schedule: Right-click/Open in the New Tab to check match times: subject to change
Ben Shelton vs Frances Tiafoe Head-to-Head Series
The Shelton vs Tiafoe h2h is 1-0 in favor of the former player. The two met in the quarterfinals of the 2023 US Open. Shelton won the match in four sets, a match that I previewed back in September with a recommendation on the underdog. I don't think Tiafoe took this loss well as it initiated a slump between the US Open and the current event in Houston.
On current rankings, Shelton is the World No. 16 while Tiafoe is the World No. 23. Shelton should be up at least a spot on Monday. If he wins the title, then he should be up two spots. Meanwhile, Tiafoe will need to duplicate his title from last season more or less just to stay put. Neither of these players is in the draw sheet for next week's Monte-Carlo Masters event in Monaco.
Ben Shelton's Recent Matches and Results
Shelton beat Tomas Martin Etcheverry in the last round in a three-set match. Previously, the American had a bye through the first round but defeated Zizou Berg in the round of sixteen and Brandon Nakashima in the quarterfinals. Shelton is 6-2 on sets played so far in the tournament.
With a win in this upcoming match, Shelton could change the complexion of his clay-cour reputation a bit. So far, he could only be noted as a hard courter with his results at the 2023 US Open and 2023 Australian Open.
Last season, Shelton did not have a great clay court season. He went out early in each tour-level event he entered. With some weak results in 2024 at times, the final in Houston feels like an important match for Shelton to resolidify himself as a threat on tour.
Frances Tiafoe's Recent Matches and Results
Tiafoe beat Luciano Darderi in the semifinals. The match had a second-set tiebreaker but was fairly short, lasting just 21 games. Earlier in ATP Houston, Tiafoe opened with a bye in the first round before beating James Duckworth and Jordan Thompson. Tiafoe has not had a good season so far, marked by losses to lower-ranked players.
Shelton vs Tiafoe Prediction: Shelton to win
I am going back to Shelton for this one. I was with the American in the early rounds but felt that he would lose to Etcheverry. He proved me wrong and I think it was an impressive result for him. Previously in Houston, Shelton had tallied a couple of wins over players that didn't have much substance. But the come-from-behind win over Etcheverry shows that Shelton will probably have more to offer this season on clay than he did last season on the surface.
I don't know that Tiafoe has busted out of his slump. He did have a simple draw this week so far in Houston. My recommendation is with Shelton, a player who I think has more pure talent than Tiafoe (bet365).
