Daniil Medvedev, the No. 4 at the 2024 BNP Paribas Open, will face America's last hope for a title-winner in the draw this season, Tommy Paul. The two will meet in the semifinals at the 2024 Indian Wells tennis tournament soon. Paul has been sharp while playing on American soil over the last several weeks. But he enters the match at +220 on the moneyline to win (bet365). Meanwhile, Medvedev is priced at -275 following a straight-sets victory in the last round. My Medvedev vs Paul prediction focuses on Paul and the chance that he is a bit underrated in this match. However, I do consider Medvedev to be the favorite.
Schedule of Play: Right-click/Open in the New Tab to check match times: subject to change
Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul Head-to-Head Series
The Medvedev vs Paul h2h is 2-0 in favor of the former player. Furthermore, Medvedev leads on sets at 5-1. One of their matches was played on clay at the 2021 French Open, a 3-1 result in Medvedev's favor.
Meanwhile, their other match was played at ATP Beijing in September 2023, a match that Medvedev won on the hardcourt surface in straight sets. The result was not particularly close with Medvedev posting a 6-2, 6-1 result that day back in the fall of 2023. However, bettors need not place a ton of weight on this result as Paul seemed to dip his playing level from September 2023 to the end of January 2024. Since the start of February, we've seen a more determined player on tour.
The Draw: Right-click/Open the link in a new tab for the draw for the 2024 BNP Paribas Open
Daniil Medvedev's Recent Matches and Results
Medvedev is 8-1 on sets played so far in the 2024 Indian Wells draw. He took out both Holger Rune and Grigor Dimitrov in straight sets. Earlier in the draw, Sebastian Korda managed to take a set of the Russian. This current Indian Wells tournament is the third event we've seen Medvedev in this season. He lost in the Australian Open final to Jannik Sinner and to Ugo Humbert in the Dubai semifinals.
Tommy Paul's Recent Matches and Results
Paul is also 8-1 on sets played so far this at Indian Wells 2024. His victory over Ugo Humbert earlier in the tournament is an impressive result, given that Humbert is a multi-hardcourt title winner so far this season.
Paul also beat Casper Ruud in the quarterfinals, a player who has been hard to beat in his recent tournament entries. Paul only made the third round at Melbourne Park but he has played well on American soil. He won the ATP Dallas title and made the Delray Beach final. It's not surprising to see him in the late rounds at Indian Wells. Nor would it be overly surprising to see him defeat Medvedev, in my opinion.
Medvedev vs Paul Predictions
I am expecting both players to have a lot of determination in this match. But I would only put Medvedev at -160 for true odds in this match. Medvedev did recently lose to a player that Paul beat, Ugo Humbert. The betting odds on the Russian are -275, which are far too short in my opinion (bet365). That means taking Paul as a value pick at +220 for moneyliners.
Tommy Paul to win a set at -138 looks like a good bet. I also like the first-set score of 7-5 for either player at +750 as I think any weak nerves might be late in the first set with both players having a lot of energy at the start.
Paul vs Medvedev prediction: Draw at the 2024 BNP Paribas Open
This match is on the side of the draw where Novak Djokovic went out early. Djokovic is the only player seeded 1-4 that did not make the semifinals, or the round of sixteen for that matter. The winner of this match will likely be the underdog in the final, regardless of who he plays. Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, at the time of writing, were set to battle it out for a spot in the Indian Wells final on the other half of the draw.
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