Facundo Diaz Acosta will face Spain's Roberto Bautista Agut in a match that is expected on Tuesday's Order of Play at the 2024 ATP Monte-Carlo tennis tournament. This will be a first-round match in the draw, a match where Diaz Acosta is considered the underdog at +110. Roberto Bautista Agut is a veteran on tour. However, bettors should be having a look at this match to see if the Spaniard has been overrated in his opening match at the 2024 Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters. In the final analysis, my Diaz Acosta vs Bautista Agut prediction reflects confidence in the Spaniard at this point in his season.
Schedule of Play: Right-click/Open in the New Tab to check match times: subject to change
Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Roberto Bautista Agut Head-to-Head Series
The Diaz Acosta vs Bautista Agut h2h is 0-0, meaning their match on Tuesday will be the first between them. The April 8th, 2024 rankings would imply that it should be Diaz Acosta who should be the favorite in this match. He is the current World No. 53 while Bautista Agut is the No. 90 these days. Furthermore, on year-to-date rankings, Diaz Acosta is No. 28 while Bautista Agut is out at the 75th position.
The Draw: Right-click/Open the link in a new tab for the draw for the 2024 Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters
Facundo Diaz Acosta's Recent Matches and Results
Diaz Acosta is a lucky loser in the draw. He went 1-1 in qualifiers, losing in the last round to Sumit Nagal. Diaz Acosta was active last week but did not win a match in Marrakech. He had a mildly competitive loss to a little-known American player. Diaz Acosta did play well in early-round matches in Latin America's clay-court swing. Furthermore, he won the ATP Buenos Aires draw outright, making his poor play recently a little surprising.
Roberto Bautista Agut's Recent Matches and Results
Bautista Agut was in Estoril last week, where he made the second round after beating Miomir Kecmanovic. The Spaniard had a competitive loss in the second round to Pedro Martinez, the player who would make the final in the tournament. In qualifying, Bautista Agut beat two decent players. He took out Dominic Thiem and Lorenzo Sonego, going 4-1 on sets played. It's these results relative to Diaz Acosta's recent results that appear to have factored in to making Bautista Agut the favorite in this upcoming match in Monaco.
Serving Splits: ATP Stats
This section lists each player's ATP stats for the last 52 weeks on the relevant surface. Bettors should look and consider the splits: how one player's serve seems to match up against the other player's return-of-serve.
Facundo Diaz Acosta
Serving ability: 42nd/clay/last 52 weeks
Return-of-serve ability: 15th/clay/last 52 weeks
Roberto Bautista Agut
Serving ability: 56th/clay/last 52 weeks
Return-of-serve ability: 46th/clay/last 52 weeks
One thing that stands out in the statistics above is that Diaz Acosta has some significant return skills on clay. Furthermore, he is matched up against a player who is not known for a strong service game. The stats imply that Diaz Acosta should have more than his share of break-point opportunities in the upcoming contest. But the stats above are long-term stats. They do not emphasize short-term trends.
Diaz Acosta vs Bautista Agut Prediction: RBA wins
This is one of those matches where you can find reasons to bet against each player. One thing that could be pointed out with Diaz Acosta is that when he won his title in Buenos Aires, he was playing in a home-country tournament. That would have been to his advantage in the match.
I do think that his second chance as a lucky loser is to his advantage. It will allow Diaz Acosta to make adjustments after losing in the last round. However, RBA was also in the qualifying draw, which gives him some things to reflect on. I think the Spaniard is the one that will win this match. My recommendation is to take him at -138 (bet365) on the moneyline as he appears to have hit his groove in the last couple of weeks while Diaz Acosta seems to have hit a dip.
Bautista Agut vs Diaz Acosta prediction: Draw at the 2024 Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters
The winner of this match will face the winner of the Hubert Hurkacz vs Jack Draper match. Hurkacz could be a tiring player, perhaps opening up this section of the draw a little. He did just win a title in Estoril over the weekend. Then again, it was a short tournament for him so perhaps his energy levels will remain high.
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