The 2024 ATP Barcelona event will continue on Thursday. In one of the matches, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is favored. He will face Dusan Lajovic at the 500-series tournament in Spain, which is known as the 2024 Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell. Davidovich Fokina, who represents Spain, is priced at -125 (bet365) on the moneyline. My Davidovich Fokina vs Lajovic prediction is that this match will have UNDER 2.5 sets.
Schedule of Play: Right-click/Open in the New Tab to check match times: subject to change
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Dusan Lajovic Head-to-Head Series
The Davidovich Fokina vs Lajovic h2h is 0-2 in favor of the latter player. That does suggest that Lajovic's status as a small underdog in this match is wrong. He is also undefeated on sets against Davidovich Fokina, going 4-0 in their limited series. They do have a clay-court match in their history with Lajovic winning a match in Rome 6-4, 6-4 in 2020.
On current rankings, this is the World No. 27 in ADK against the World No. 59 in Lajovic. On year-to-date rankings, there is some parity. Lajovic is 59th in the world while ADK is 49th.
The Draw: Right-click/Open the link in a new tab for the draw for the 2024 Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina's Recent Matches and Results
Davidovich Fokina had a bye through the first round in Barcelona. In the second round, he had a walkover as Tomas Machac pulled out of the tournament. That means ADK is making his Barcelona debut this season in the round of sixteen.
Last week, the Spaniard was in the Monte-Carlo Masters where he lost early to Sebastian Korda 6-1, 6-2. ADK has largely been searching for wins this season -- and failing. He only earned one victory in Miami and Indian Wells combined. He is a tough player to be backing at favorite odds.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Serving ability: 52nd/clay/last 52 weeks
Return-of-serve ability: 25th/clay/last 52 weeks
Dusan Lajovic's Recent Matches and Results
Lajovic has been efficient so far in Barcelona, winning two matches in straight sets. He also beat two good players in Diego Schwartzman and Ugo Humbert. In the last round, he knocked out Humbert 6-4, 6-4.
Lajovic was in the Monte Carlo Masters last week. He fell in the first round of qualifying. The Serb's recent hard-court results were somewhat flat as he went just 2-3 in Miami, Indian Wells, and Acapulco combined. However, Lajovic did do okay in the clay-court events that he entered in February. He went 4-2 in Rio and Buenos Aires combined, beating some decent players in those draws. However, it was the third-round matches that were a problem for him in Rio and Buenos Aires.
Lajovic vs Davidovich Fokina prediction: UNDER 2.5 sets
Davidovich Fokina is going to have an advantage for fatigue in this match. He enters having not played since April 9th. Meanwhile, Lajovic enters the match having played on the 16th and 17th. However, both of his matches were pretty routine.
I think the best bet in this match is to go UNDER 2.5 sets at -150 (bet365). I don't think Lajovic will be overly tired at the start of the match. However, I could see the 33-year-old fading as the match goes on. If he loses the first set, he will likely be deflated. Meanwhile, if he wins the first set, I think he will understand that he should be going all in for the second set. The winner of the first set in this match is more important than normal. Take 2 total sets at -150 or UNDER 2.5 (bet365).
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