Tua Tagovailoa has missed two full games this season and part of another one. Prior to missing games, he was leading the NFL in passing yards. Heading into Week 9, Tagovailoa is well off of the radar for the race and he sits 18th in the NFL. However, at 150 to 1 to lead the NFL in passing yards with bet365, his numbers are worth crunching.
The Pick: Tagovailoa at 150 to 1 (passing yards)
Firstly, Tagovailoa marked his successful return from concussion protocols in Week 8. He played in Week 7 but wasn't back to form in the Pittsburgh game.
In Week 8, he led the NFL in passing yards with 382. The leader in the league right now is Joe Burrow. Tagovailoa gained 150 passing yards on him in Week 8. Furthermore, Miami's QB gained 164 yards on Josh Allen, the current betting favorite to lead the NFL in regular season passing yards (bet365).
Just how much has to go right for Tagovailoa to lead the NFL in passing yards? He would need to stay healthy for the balance of the season. Also, things would have to go wrong with the top players ahead of him.
Too many QBs to chase down?
Things could definitely go wrong with Burrow. The Cincinnati quarterback was without Ja'Marr Chase in Week 8 and as he went so went Cincinnati's passing game. Chase could miss some significant time this regular season. That could bring Burrow back to the pack.
Tom Brady is among the leaders. However, you would expect a 45-year-old QB to need some rest and relaxation late in the season. His second-half numbers might not keep up with the first-half.
Josh Allen is the betting favorite to lead the league but there's a bit of a hint in what could go wrong with him from the Pittsburgh game. The Bills didn't leave Allen in to play the whole game after the victory was assured. If the Bills end up clinching their playoff ticket and the top seed early, then Allen might lose some snaps in favor of preservation late in the season.
Patrick Mahomes is a player that could lead the NFL in passing yards. However, he is just 11/4 for the race. You can't take those odds against the entire field with nine games to go in the season.
Tua Tagovailoa the only bet worth taking
What you can do is put your nickles and dimes on Tagovailoa at 150 to 1. He has got more than enough to work with in Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Mike Gesicki. The QB could put up several 300+ passing yards performances and, if he stays healthy, he should be gaining on the field week after week going forward. The race could get close in the final weeks and 150 to 1 should shorten.
NFL Passing Yards Leaders betting recommendation
- Tagovailoa at 150 to 1 with bet365
