The 2023 NFL regular season started on Thursday, September 7th. The Kansas City Chiefs, the defending Super Bowl champions, hosted the Detroit Lions at Arrowhead Stadium. The game produced a surprising result. The Lions managed to defeat the Chiefs 21-20. With the result, Detroit is 1-0 while KC starts 0-1 on the season. The balance of the games in Week 1 will be played on Sunday and Monday. As the Sunday games near, we've got our 2023 NFL Week 1 predictions, picks, and betting tips for all of the main markets ready (all odds from bet365 throughout).
Remember, when Week 1 is over, we already have Week 2 ready to go!
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Stay Tuned For Updates: NFL Week 1 (Sunday Games)
The chart below has our NFL Week 1 best bets for main markets. The odds are subject to change. We include the exact date of our recommendation in the final column. If you see something crossed out, it means the betting line has changed after a previous tip. We use the "cross-out' feature instead of the delete feature so you can see what was tipped at an earlier time. If something is crossed out it doesn't mean that we abandoned the tip, rather it means the odds have been updated.
2023 NFL Week 1 Picks: All Games
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| Date | Away vs Home | The Pick: (as of) |
| September 7th, 2023 GAME OVER | Lions vs Chiefs Outcome: Lions 21, Chiefs 20 | Lions +5.0 (Sep. 6th) (WINNER) |
| September 10th, 2023 | Panthers vs Falcons Outcome: Panthers 10, Falcons 24 | Falcons -180 (Sep 10th) (WINNER) |
| September 10th, 2023 | Bengals vs Browns Outcome: Bengals 3, Browns 24 | Browns +2.0 (Sep 10th) (WINNER) |
| September 10th, 2023 | Jaguars vs Colts Outcome: Jags 31, Colts 21 | Jaguars -4.5 (Sep 10th) (WINNER) |
| September 10th, 2023 | Buccaneers vs Vikings Outcome: Bucs 20, Vikings 18 | Bucs +6.0 (Aug. 29th) (WINNER) |
| September 10th, 2023 | Titans vs Saints Outcome: Titans 15, Saints 16 | Titans +3.5 (Aug. 29th) (WINNER) |
| September 10th, 2023 | 49ers vs Steelers 49ers 30, Steelers 7 | OVER 41.5 (Sep 10th) (LOSER) |
| September 10th, 2023 | Cardinals vs Commanders Outcome: Cards 16, Commanders 20 | Commanders -7.0 (Sep 10th) (LOSER) |
| September 10th, 2023 | Texans vs Ravens Outcome: Texans 9, Ravens 23 | Ravens -500 (Sep 10th) (WINNER) |
| September 10th, 2023 | Packers vs Bears Outcome: Packers 38, Bears 20 | Packers +110 (Aug. 29th) (WINNER) |
| September 10th, 2023 | Raiders vs Broncos Outcome: Raiders 17, Broncos 16 | OVER 44.0 (Aug. 26th) (LOSER) |
| September 10th, 2023 | Eagles vs Patriots Outcome: Eagles 25, Patriots 20 | Patriots +4.5 (Aug. 29th) (LOSER) |
| September 10th, 2023 | Dolphins vs Chargers Outcome: Dolphins 36, Chargers 34 | UNDER 51.0 (Aug. 31st) (LOSER) |
| September 10th, 2023 | Rams vs Seahawks Outcome: Rams 30, Seahawks 13 | Seahawks -4.5 (Aug. 26th) (LOSER) |
| September 10th, 2023 | Cowboys vs Giants Outcome: Cowboys 40, Giants 0 | OVER 46.5 (Aug. 30th) (LOSER) |
| September 11th, 2023 | Bills vs Jets Outcome: Bills 16, Jets 22 (OT) | Bills -2.0 (Aug. 26th) (LOSER) |
Panthers vs Falcons: NFL Week 1 Pick
Desmond Ridder is the player to watch for the Atlanta Falcons. He fared well in four regular-season appearances last season. His status as Atlanta's QB1 should not be viewed as a mere project. Ridder could be presented as one of the top-32 quarterbacks in the NFL.
In the 2023 NFL preseason, Ridder had just one appearance. He led a promising drive but it ended in an interception that was the result of a deflection. It's possible that some referees might have called pass interference on the play. Ridder's regular season from 2022/23 still looms large at this point. He was good in four appearances.
One concern with Atlanta is that they did not have a stand-out offensive performance in their regular season. They had just 32 total points in their three games.
Atlanta is expected to be going up against Bryce Young in Week 1, Carolina's top pick from the 2023 NFL Draft (1st overall). Young did appear in the preseason and he was a bit of a flop in the first game. He remained unconvincing in the second preseason game. However, he was good in the third preseason game.
If Young has any nerves, then it will be to the advantage of Atlanta in a big way. For instance, even Trevor Lawrence, the last QB to go No. 1 before Young, had big troubles in his first game in the NFL. The Houston Texans picked Lawrence off three times in Week 1 of the 2021 NFL season. Will the same happen to Bryce Young this season?
Carolina might also have offensive problems on the whole. They were the only team to suffer a shutout loss in Week 1 of the preseason. They only scored 19 points in the second game.
Expect Ridder to be the cool one in this game and Bryce Young to be the question mark. We're going with Atlanta on the moneyline at -170.
Jaguars vs Colts: NFL Week 1 Picks
The Jacksonville Jaguars are favored to win in Week 1 of the upcoming NFL season. They will be on the road against the Indianapolis Colts.
The line for this game is one that has budged. It started at -3.5 for the game with bet365 sportsbook (-110), which was our original recommendation. But the line budged to -4.5, possibly because betting trends went against Indianapolis after they announced that they would start Anthony Richardson as their QB1. Also, that Jonathan Taylor is shopping himself around simply can't help.
Jacksonville is our pick to win this game. They should also cover the spread.
If there were games that might get ugly for home teams in Week 1, then this would be among them. The Colts might be the worst team in the NFL this upcoming season. Adjusted spreads on Jacksonville should not be considered out of the question. They are +115 at -6.5 with bet365. It would not be surprising to see the Jags win this game by a touchdown.
The Colts just look way too questionable on paper. They have both an unproven quarterback and an unproven head coach. To add to this, their best player, Jonathan Taylor, announced that he wanted out earlier this summer. With his situation in question, how can anyone expect the Colts' offense to be ready for Week 1? Even if it gets resolved, there is a qualitative factor to consider: Will Taylor be happy if he is forced to stay? Going up against a Jacksonville team that has something to prove, the Colts cannot be backed in this game.
Cowboys vs Giants NFL Week 1 Pick
Can we all agree that Dak Prescott is a little overrated? He is the the "good but not great" category, right?
Last season, Prescott took a big dip relative to the season before. Firstly, he missed five regular season games. Secondly, he went 23-15 on TD passes to INTs en route to leading the NFL in interceptions (shared the lead with Davis Mills). Prescott's passer rating dropped in kind and so did his QBR. Also, Prescott is now 30 years old, meaning that he is starting to get to the outer edge of his athletic prime. The Super Bowl window is not closed in Dallas -- but it is closing.
The Cowboys have a receiving core that any offensive coordinator would like. CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks, and Michael Gallup form a strong trio of receivers. The addition of Cooks promises to be a good one. At the running back position, the exit of Ezekiel Elliott means that Tony Pollard should have a big season. A good quarterback surrounded by lots of weapons could mean offensive fireworks in Dallas this season.
The New York Giants, the team Dallas will play in Week 1, dodged major drama this summer. They worked things out with Saquon Barkley. QB Daniel Jones does not fit the bill for a contending team but he doesn't turn the ball over much.
This Week 1 game, which is the stand-alone game on Sunday night in Week 1, should go OVER for total points. The bar was set at 47.0 but is 46.5 as of August 30th, 2023. You have to be thinking closer to 55 points in this game. Our recommendation is to take the OVER at odds of -110 (bet365).
Packers vs Bears NFL Week 1 Pick
The Green Bay Packers are into their post-Aaron Rodgers period. One team that will be looking for revenge is Chicago. Rodgers got the best of the Bears over many years. With him in New York, there might be some renewed optimism in Chicago tallying an extra win or two in the upcoming 2023 NFL regular season.
The departure of Rodgers will put Jordan Love under the spotlight in Green Bay. Love is 24 years old and he actually appears to be poised for a QB1 job. However, he took very limited snaps last season. Accordingly, it's very difficult to decide what kind of stock one should be putting into his on-field performance last season. It was nice to see that he had a good preseason game against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1. He was also good when he played in Week 2 and in Week 3.
But what you really have to like about this game, is that Green Bay's new QB1 is up against a defense that looks weak. The Bears probably won't be as bad as last season on defense. After all, they could be viewed as the worst team in 2022/23 from a defensive perspective. However, it's hard to picture them as anything close to average still. They should be in the bottom third of the league in terms of points against this season.
Green Bay vs Chicago NFL Week 1 Final Thoughts
Bettors, evidently, do not quite know what to make of this game. The Packers are just +2.0 underdogs, which probably has a lot to do with being on the road. But Jordan Love won't be in over his head against Chicago.
Perhaps the elephant in the room is that Matt LaFleur, GB's head coach, is 47-19 in regular season games. Meanwhile, his counterpart, Matt Eberflus, went 3-14 last season. Forget the points in this one. Go for the upset at +110 with bet365. They look like the best underdog bet of Week 1.
Texans vs Ravens: NFL Week 1 Pick
The Week 1 game with the biggest spread as of August 26th remains the contest between the Houston Texans and the Baltimore Ravens. The Texans were +9.5 road underdogs (-110) early in August but have drifted out to +10.0. Their reputation clearly precedes them in the 2023 NFL season. Houston has been one of the worst teams over the last three seasons.
If you are eyeballing the betting lines on this game, then you should be interested in CJ Stroud. Houston cannot afford for him to be a draft bust. The quarterback went No. 2 overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. The balance of the news with Stroud is that the training camp is going well. Coty M. Davis at Si.com wrote on August 6th "Rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud is looking more and more like the starter for the Houston Texans in 2023."
However, Stroud's preseason debut was shaky. He tossed an INT, New England sacked him for a 15-yard loss, and he was just 2 for 4 on passing. Stroud was better in Week 2 but he does not appear ready to lead a team to NFL regular season wins. Davis Mills might be the better selection if Houston wants to win in Week 1. But then, maybe the Texans will just be in this season to develop Stroud.
Whether the Texans go with Stroud or Davis, they will be up against a touted Baltimore defense. That could be a very rude awakening for Houston's rookie QB. Training camp with the Houston Texans won't prepare him for a Baltimore defense that looks, at least, above average. It would be a real shock if Houston won this game.
The handicap is a big one to cover. We'll start with a -450 moneyline call in this market. Odds that short aren't always popular with the bettors. But they can be worked into parlays.
Rams vs Seahawks NFL Week 1 Pick
Matthew Stafford won the Super Bowl two seasons ago. Then, last season, he fell hard. What should bettors be making of that? One explanation is that he no longer feels driven after winning the NFL championship. He did, after all, get the monkey off of his back in a major way with that accomplishment. It might only be natural to relax a little after that. If Stafford has tapped out in terms of motivation, then LAR might have the worst QB depth chart this season.
The Rams are on the road against the Seahawks in Week 1. Seattle has what looks like a potent offense: Geno Smith at quarterback is an above-average QB1, Kenneth Walker III looks like a dangerous running back, and receivers DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett form a duo that's better than most of what you see around the league.
Seattle is missing something on defense. But Stafford probably won't be the quarterback that exposes that. He took 29 sacks in just nine games last season. Seattle's pass rush might struggle in 2022/23 but they have a good matchup in Week 1.
Also, Seattle has the better coach. Lots have been made of Geno Smith's rise as a starting quarterback. Perhaps related, Russell Wilson had a terrible season last year -- when he moved away from Seattle. Maybe Pete Carroll was a bigger factor in Russell Wilson's success than anyone realized.
Don't be surprised if this one is double digits for the Seahawks. Take them to cover -4.5 with bet365 at odds of -110.
Cardinals vs Commanders 2023 NFL Week 1
The Arizona Cardinals vs Washington Commanders was one of the cloudier games of Week 1. However, there is an increasing likelihood that Kyler Murray won't play in this game, something no one was sure about early in August. It will be a part of the early set on Sunday, September 10th, 2023.
Murray's participation at full health could make Arizona competitive in most games. In fact, Murray can still change the complexion of Arizona's entire season -- remembering that he was among the MVP favorites just two seasons ago.
Most of the conjecture on Murray has been that he will not play in Week 1. In mid-to-late August, his name started to surface in trade rumors. Jeremy Huff headlined at AzCentral "Kyler Murray trade speculation hangs over Arizona Cardinals for 2023 NFL season" (August 21st, 2023). Furthermore, the Arizona Cardinals recently traded for QB Joshua Dobbs. This is a game where the line budged from -6.0 on Washington to -7.0 after the Dobbs trade.
Arizona won their preseason opener. However, they didn't have a bright light at QB. None of the three QBs that appeared in the game had a passer rating over 100.0. In their second preseason game, the team had little on offense again. Also, they gave up tons of points to KC, who played their entire cast of QBs.
But let's look at the other side, the home team Commanders. They have Sam Howell as their QB1 ahead of Jacoby Brissett. That says something positive about what they think of Howell. Yet, he brings just one game of NFL experience into the 2023/24 season. He didn't amaze anyone in that one game, which was against Dallas last season.
What looks good with Washington is that they have two decent running backs. Brian Robinson Jr. and Antonio Gibson could bail out a quarterback who is not passing well.
Arizona vs Washington NFL Week 1 Final Thoughts
As of August 26th, 2023, you have to be thinking that Colt McCoy, or worse, will be the QB for Arizona in Week 1. Is a handicap of +7.0 enough points on Arizona when it might be Colt McCoy in the pocket? His name is really a blast from the past at this point in his NFL career.
He appeared in four games last season and went 1-3 for TD passes to INTs. Also, his QBR was just 37.4, meaning he brought little to the table for a comprehensive quarterbacking game. His completion percentage was good but there wasn't enough yardage in general. Furthermore, if you applied +7.0 points to McCoy's games last season, Arizona would have gone 1-3.
For Washington, you have to think that Howell will be the best QB in the game. He was very good in preseason Week 2, throwing for two TDs and passing for a passer rating of 123.4. Washington at -7.0 at home is the pick for this game with Murray, out of the blue, coming to full health being the news Washington backers don't want to hear.
49ers vs Steelers 2023 NFL Week 1
The San Francisco 49ers will resume their quest for a Super Bowl on Sunday, September 10th. They will start the season on the road against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The 49ers opened as small favorites for the game, set at -3.0 with bet365 (-110). In recent days, the 49ers have drifted to -2.5 with the same firm.
The 49ers, after making the conference championship last season, remain a loaded team. That they have three quarterbacks that are each credible enough starters speaks to the caliber of their roster. Brock Purdy is the QB1 as of early August. But the 49ers have talent in numerous other positions. At first glance, -2.5 looks like a small spread for them to cover.
In Pittsburgh, Kenny Pickett will begin his second season. Last season, he started the campaign with loads of interceptions -- but they faded as time went on. He had just one INT in the last eight games he appeared in. That speaks very well to Pickett's intelligence. This isn't a quarterback that keeps making the same mistake over and over again. For sure, that will make him an NFL starter for years to come.
He could be viewed as a work in progress. Especially since Pickett's offense did not have many points in the late going of 2022/23. The Steelers rarely got out of the teens in the last several weeks of last season.
In his first preseason appearance, Pickett was really good in limited play. Then, in his second game, he was also really good in limited play. He maintained a strong level of play in Week 3 of the NFL preseason. In fact, bettors should be wary of opposing Pittsburgh in this game. It looks like a game where you just can't split the difference between the two teams and settle on anything solid.
Bank on Offense in this Game
The best bet looks like the OVER for total points. It has only been set at 41.0. With everything that San Francisco has on offense, it is hard to picture them staying below 28 points. Also, San Francisco's defense hasn't been good in the preseason so far. With Pickett good for two drives for TDs, you have to think that Pittsburgh will end up around 20-25 points. We're abandoning our previous tip on this game, which was San Francisco at -3.0. Instead, we're now going with OVER 41.0 total points at -110 with bet365.
Bengals vs Browns in Week 1 Pick
When it comes to NFL Week 1 Picks, a very valid question right now is what should be done with the Cincinnati Bengals. They are among the Super Bowl favorites, yet, there is an injury concern with their QB1, Joe Burrow. Furthermore, Burrow is no ordinary QB1 in the NFL: he is the second favorite to win the MVP (all odds/favorites as per bet365 sportsbook). If he doesn't play, then it's a complete market changer. News in late August was that he was getting back to practicing with the team.
The Cincinnati Bengals will debut on the road on Sunday of Week 1. They will face the Cleveland Browns. The odds in very early August priced the Browns as small underdogs. Cleveland was set at +1.0 (-110) but they have drifted by a point and a half since that time out to +2.5 as of late on August 30th, 2023. That is likely because the news with Joe Burrow appears to be improving. Cincinnati's 2023 NFL preseason showed that they don't have much for a backup QB so they will need Burrow to be competitive in this tough road game.
Yet, Cleveland is a sleeper team. This game isn't as simple as whether or not Joe Burrow is playing.
A team with Deshaun Watson, Nick Chubb, and Myles Garrett could be very dangerous. Garrett is second favorite for Defensive Player of the Year at 7 to 1. He is also the second favorite to lead the NFL in sacks. Meanwhile, Chubb is the favorite to lead the NFL in rushing yards at +650. Those are two players that could be game-changers.
Take the Points on Cleveland
One thing you can bet on in this game is simply Cincinnati not being ready for the regular season. They have not looked good in their opening preseason games. Furthermore, even if Burrow plays there is a question of him being properly prepared. Let's not forget Week 1 of last season where the Bengals lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Burrow had four interceptions in the game. Mitch Trubisky outplayed him that day. Something similar could happen if Burrow is at all rusty due to the injury time. Our recommendation is to take the points on Cleveland in this one at +2.5 (-110) with bet365.
Bucs vs Vikings: NFL Week 1 Pick
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Minnesota Vikings will play in the early set on Sunday in Week 1. The Vikings, one of the biggest favorites of the day, will host the game. Their handicap is -6.0 (-110) with bet365 sportsbook.
This game is expected to represent the Tampa Bay debut for Baker Mayfield. Mayfield did do acceptably well in TB's first preseason game. He went 8 for 9 with a 132.9 passer rating. He also went 6 for 6 in his second appearance. In some ways, his credibility as a starting QB is hanging by a thread. The positive results from the 2023 NFL preseason should help him with confidence.
The Vikings lost all three of their preseason games. Furthermore, they never really had a game where their defense turned heads. +6.0 handicap helpers on the Bucs could be huge in this game given that Mayfield finally appears to be coming into his own.
Titans vs Saints NFL Week 1 Pick
The New Orleans Saints will host the Tennessee Titans in Week 1 of the upcoming 2023 NFL season. This is a Sunday game that will be part of the early set. The Saints are -3.5 favorites (-110) with bet365 as of August 29th, 2023.
Derek Carr debuted in the preseason on August 12th. He had very good stats in the game with a 140.6 passer rating. Of course, his play was limited but he passed for a TD to the plaudits of the pundits.
But what can't be ignored in this Week 1 game is that Alvin Kamara will miss it due to suspension. He is New Orleans' RB1.
Jamaal Williams, the team's RB2, was used sparingly in the NFL preseason. Could be that New Orleans, wise to the situation, knew that they couldn't risk injuring him with Kamara out.
As of August 29th, you have to be thinking that +3.5 on Tennessee is looking good. Neither of the two QBs that have played for Tennessee in their preseason games shined but they have Ryan Tannehill rested and ready. The Titans look like they are all in on him having a healthy season. In a game that's cloudy, it's best if bettors go with the points.
Raiders vs Broncos NFL Week 1 Pick
The Denver Broncos are favored to win in Week 1 at -4.0 with bet365 (-110). That is a line that was adjusted after the first week of preseason action. Previously, the Broncos were -3.5. They will host the Las Vegas Raiders, a team that struggled last season just like Denver did. In what looks like an open game our recommendation is on the total points and OVER/UNDER options.
Vegas struggled last season but they actually made a big change. Jimmy Garoppolo is the QB1 with Derek Carr moving down south. A healthy Garoppolo could be viewed as a mild upgrade to Derek Carr at this point in the two QBs' careers.
Denver is different this upcoming season because they have a proven head coach. Sean Payton is 152-89 in regular season games. He has never had a worse season than 7-9 and that says something based on his long tenure in the NFL. He has won plenty of these coin-toss kinds of games in his career.
But our recommendation is going to be to steer clear of the moneyline and spread in this game. If you are only interested in those lines for popular markets, then the Raiders at +175 is the bankroll-management bet (ie. you don't have to bet that much because the odds are decent). In our view, this is a game for the OVER/UNDER bettors when it comes to total points.
Total Points the Focus
The total points bar is set at 44.0 in this game. There seems to be much more upside to that market than downside.
Firstly, Payton will probably have Russell Wilson producing better this season. Also, let's not forget that Davante Adams is with the Raiders still. If he has good chemistry with Garoppolo, then that duo alone could produce a lot of big plays. Of course, once that's established everything else starts to open up. The Raiders have an excellent running back in Josh Jacobs. There's enough offensive potential in these two lineups, that a 44.0 points total looks pretty low. Take the OVER at -110 with bet365 and expect 50+ points.
Eagles vs Patriots NFL Week 1
The Philadelphia Eagles and the New England Patriots will square off in Week 1. The two teams are scheduled as part of the afternoon set on Sunday (4:25 PM ET start time). The Patriots will host the game but they enter as moderate-to-big underdogs. They were at +5.0 with bet365 (-110) but have shortened by half a point in recent days. As of August 29th, the Patriots are +4.5.
The big change with the Patriots this season is that they have Bill O'Brien as the offensive coordinator. You could argue that O'Brien is overqualified for the job. As a head coach in the NFL, he posted a winning record of 52-48. Furthermore, he won four divisional titles before an 0-4 start to the 2020 season chased him from Houston. It has been garbage football for Houston ever since O'Brien left the Texans. It's not like firing O'Brien solved any problems with that franchise.
He should be very effective as an offensive coordinator. In fact, he and Bill Belichick make for the best head coach/OC duo in the NFL right now.
Eagles vs Patriots: Final Thoughts
The Philadelphia Eagles are going to be tough. But Philadelphia wasn't amazing on the road last season. You would expect this season's Pats to be better than last season's and they were a tricky team last season. Philadelphia should only be -2.0 in this game. The points on the Patriots look big at +4.5. Our recommendation is to take that line at -110.
Dolphins vs Chargers NFL Week 1
The Miami Dolphins will be in Los Angeles in Week 1. They will meet the Chargers as part of the Sunday afternoon set. It's a game where the OVER/UNDER appears to be high. It has been set at 51.0 with -110 available either way (bet365).
For offensive production, you just can't have full confidence in Tagovailoa following last season's injury issues. Furthermore, he was none too impressive in his preseason debut. He threw an interception and had a passer rating of just 58.7. Also, LA just doesn't quite have the receiving core that you would want. Lastly, Herbert takes a few too many sacks and his INTs are a little higher than what you would like. One or both sides might fall flat in this game on offense, making a 51.0 total points bar really high.
Bills vs Jets NFL Week 1 Picks
The NFL didn't hold back on the Monday night game in Week 1. The Buffalo Bills, the third favorite to win the Super Bowl, will face the New York Jets. The Jets, who signed Aaron Rodgers in the offseason, are the 6th favorites to win the Super Bowl. This game sees New York as tiny home underdogs at +2.0 (-110).
The news with Aaron Rodgers and the Jets hasn't been great so far. In headlines from early August, Rodgers was described as frustrated. Anyone who has followed the NFL for the last decade knows that NYJ isn't a good football franchise. That's a point that Colin Cowherd made in a recent discussion on the Jets. But these are two teams, the Jets and Bills, with a lot more chess pieces on the board than just quarterbacks. Yet, bettors should definitely feel much more confident in Buffalo at this point than in New York. The Jets are better on paper when you examine their roster but this is a franchise where management might be the problem. Take the Bills to cover -2.0 (-110).
