The Comeback Player of the Year in the NFL is meant for a player that overcomes adversity. In practice, it usually goes to someone that had a bad season in the previous season (usually due to injury) but followed that season up with stellar results the next season. When you are looking at betting on this market, you are trying to find an individual that has a chance to persevere through some kind of hardship. Kyler Murray, the QB1 for the Arizona Cardinals, has significant potential to win Comeback Player of the Year in the upcoming NFL season because of his recent injuries. Furthermore, he looks very underrated in the betting market for the award (all odds bet365).
NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award Betting Tips
If we look at the betting favorite to win the 2023/24 NFL Comeback Player of the Year we find a very strong favorite. Damar Hamlin is 1 to 7 (-700) against the entire field.
Hamlin's 2023/24 NFL season takes on increased meaning because, in his own words, he "died on National TV in front of the world" last season. Sports fans will remember the game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Buffalo Bills, when Hamlin collapsed and required medical personnel to save his life on the football field. You can see how recovering from that to play the next season could make you the Comeback Player of the Year. The tweet below is from back in January.
Damar Hamlin: considered a huge favorite
In fact, the betting odds suggest that he has all but won the award already. There are scores of players that might win the award but Hamlin's odds of 1 to 7 imply an 87.5% chance. Dozens of other players split the balance.
For the bettors out there, here's a betting tip for you for now and for your entire life. Never take odds of -700 on a futures market.
Conceivably, you might take those odds on an individual game that's about to be settled. But futures betting is way different. The Comeback Player of the Year Award won't be settled for more than six months.
If you are betting at -700, it means that you stand to profit 1 unit for every 7 you wager -- and that's only if the bet wins. Basically, when bettors use odds that short, they are trying to jiggle some loose change on a betting line they consider to be a lock. But there is no such thing as a sure thing in sports betting and that goes triple or quadruple for sports futures. So much could happen in six months that it's entirely foolhardy to bet any market at such short odds.
Kyler Murray is a better pick for multiple reasons
Also, there's also bankroll management. If you want to get some loose change out of -700, then you have to bet really big. You might have your whole bankroll locked up in one bet for several months. The smarter move is just to go with the candidates that have much longer odds. So let's take a look at Kyler Murray from the perspective that we want a long shot in this market that has some potential.
Murray isn't -700 to win the Comeback Player of the Year Award. He's +10000, meaning he is 100 to 1. Bettors should be putting their dimes and nickels on Murray -- and here's why.
Firstly, Murray was an MVP candidate just two seasons ago. His potential remains immense at the age of just 26 years old (Aug. 7th was his birthday). Last season, he struggled with injury but that's exactly what could set the stage for a comeback.
Secondly, Murray is a quarterback. That's important because quarterbacks always have the opportunity to shine. The ball goes to them on virtually every scrimmage, except for those rare direct-snap plays to a tight end or running back, or even receiver. Players in other offensive positions might not get the ball enough to shine. Defensive players, like Hamlin, might get the chance to make big plays. But with quarterbacks, the opportunity to impress is always there.
Let's not forget what people were saying about Murray less than two years ago. He was thought to be one of the best players in the NFL.
Our Recommendation: Murray at 100 to 1
The stage is set for a comeback. Murray should be much more of a favorite than 100 to 1 because of his position. There's simply no way odds of +10000 can be treated as anything close to true. They are way too long for a guy that was MVP favorite just two seasons ago.
Further reading: 2023 NFL Week 1 Predictions, Picks, and Betting Tips
