The 2023/24 NBA season will start next week. One of the popular debates in the association is who will win the NBA's MVP Award in the upcoming season. Last season, the award went to Joel Embiid of the Philadelphia 76ers, the first one of his career. It marked the third straight season that the NBA MVP odds were settled in favor of a center.
Was the award a one-off thing for Embiid? Or will he take it down again in the upcoming season? Firstly, let's take a look at the betting odds as food for thought.
NBA Futures 2023/24 - Regular Season MVP
- Nikola Jokic +400
- Luka Doncic +500
- Giannis Antetokounmpo +600
- Joel Embiid +800
- Jayson Tatum +850
- Kevin Durant +1500
- Damian Lillard +2200
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander +1600
- De'Aaron Fox +2800
- Stephen Curry +1400
When you are looking at making a pick in this market, there's loads to think about. Obviously, the caliber of the player is a major consideration. But this is also an award that's voted on. You can't just pick the player that you think is the best in the league: you have to pick the player that you think will get the most votes.
Did Voter Fatigue Make Joel Embiid the NBA MVP?
There are some who believe in something called "voter fatigue." This describes a consideration where voters are perceived as sick of voting for the same player for the same award season after season. It's possible that Embiid did NOT deserve the MVP award last season but got it because some felt that Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo had already received their recognition. These two players had combined for the previous four awards.
From that point of view, the two favorites that have not yet received their due are Luka Doncic and Jayson Tatum. I think bettors should be two-betting the field with those two players for starts.
NBA MVP Odds: Long Shots Only
Are there any long shots worth taking? Firstly, bettors should be keeping their money off of veterans like LeBron James, Steph Curry, and Kevin Durant. They've all already won the award in the past. But they are also major injury risks. If these guys played 60 games this season, it might be considered a successful season. But missing any more than 7-8 games and I think it starts to count against you when it comes to earning votes.
With long-shot players, you want to try and peg a young talent that might jump out of the blue. LaMelo Ball and Victor Wembanyama are the players who fit the bill. Ball had an injury-filled campaign last season but if he stays healthy, then there is no way the former All-Star is ever 250 to 1 to win (Unibet's odds). Wembanyama isn't going to win the MVP but at 250 to 1 some nickles and dimes are also in order.
Also, remember when backing a long shot, you can bet them to cash out. For instance, Wembanyama is 250 to 1 right now but if he plays like an All-Star then he may shorten to 50 to 1. That wouldn't make him close to winning the award but sometimes sportsbooks let you cash out a bet for a deal based on shortened odds. You can keep that in mind if you think a player has played better than expected but still isn't MVP caliber.
Rookie of the Year to MVP?
Lastly, there is Paolo Banchero, who you will have to get from Unibet as well. The NBA Rookie of the Year last season is 250 to 1, making for an easy value pick. With Ball, Wembanyama, and Banchero covered with small bets at huge odds, you can make the bigger moves on Doncic and Tatum.
Our featured article: NFL LIVE POWER RANKINGS
