The Philadelphia Phillies will face the Arizona Diamondbacks on Saturday, October 21st, 2023 (8:00 PM ET). This will be Game 5 of the 2023 NLCS with the series tied at 2-2. The Diamondbacks will host the game, one that will be their final home game of the season unless they are able to win two of three games in the days ahead. My Phillies vs Diamondbacks prediction is that the Dbacks either win or lose by just one run. In this game preview, I'm looking at the runline.
Philadelphia vs Arizona Prediction: Latest MLB News
Arizona looked like they were in a world of trouble. Heading home to host Game 3 of the 2023 NLCS, the Diamondbacks were down 2-0 in the best-of-seven series. The Diamondbacks won Game 3 but then found themselves heading into Game 4 without a real starting pitcher. Their pitchers struggled in Game 4, giving up five runs through seven innings. Late in the game, Philly had a 5-2 lead but Arizona somehow had it in them to score four in the late innings. In a game where they used eight different pitchers, the Diamondbacks fought back to level the series at 2-2. Regardless of what happens in the days ahead, the Diamondbacks are a gutsy team.
Philadelphia's weakness through most of the season has been their road record. They were just 41-40 on the road in the regular season. Now, if they don't find a way to win Game 5, then Arizona would be in a clinching position in Game 6 and in a possible Game 7.
Starting Pitching: Wheeler vs Gallen
The Diamondbacks have their ace ready for the game. Zac Gallen will get the start, a 17-9 pitcher from the regular season. Arizona will be hoping that they see something different from him on Saturday than what they saw earlier in the NLCS. Gallen gave up five earned runs and eight hits against Philadelphia on October 16th. Otherwise, he has been effective in the playoffs with a 2-1 record thus far.
The Phillies will send Zach Wheeler to the mound. Through 19 innings in the playoffs, he has a 2.37 ERA so far. When he faced the Diamondbacks on October 16th, he gave up two earned runs through six innings pitched. With the matchup as it is, many might be going for the UNDER. But when a game total is looking like it will be low, then handicap runs often loom much larger.
Phillies vs Diamondbacks Prediction: Betting Tips
My betting recommendation is going to be to take a +1.5 handicap with Arizona's runline (bet365). They had trouble mounting much of an offense against Wheeler earlier in the series. Partly, you have to think that it was because the Diamondbacks were not as comfortable on the road as they have been at home.
Game 5 looks like one where run-scoring is going to be at a premium early in the game. When things go over to the bullpen, then matters might change a little. Each team used a lot of pitchers in Friday's game.
But you do have to figure that this upcoming game will be well-contested. Arizona is 3-0 in their home games so there is a fair chance that the handicap isn't needed. But some artificial run support against Wheeler could definitely come in handy. Take +1.5 on Arizona at odds of -145 (bet365).
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