Italy's Jannik Sinner will face Denmark's Holger Rune at the 2024 ATP Monte-Carlo tennis tournament soon. Sinner has drawn a Top Ten player in Rune but is still coming in as a heavy for this quarterfinal match in the draw at the 2024 Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters. The Italian, who has still only lost one match all season, is priced at -800 (bet365) on the moneyline in this contest. My Sinner vs Rune prediction is that the latter player will win the match from the point of view of game handicaps.
Schedule of Play: Right-click/Open in the New Tab to check match times: subject to change
Jannik Sinner vs Holger Rune Head-to-Head Series
The Sinner vs Rune h2h is 1-2 in favor of Rune. One trend in their series is that all of the matches have gone to three sets. The last time that they played was in 2023 at the World Tour Finals. This is the match that Sinner won in the series.
They did face one another last season on clay with Rune winning in Monte-Carlo last year. This result doesn't seem to have affected the betting trends that much as Rune is still coming in at +500 in this match (bet365). For those wondering why Sinner would be such a heavy favorite in this match despite a losing record heads-up, it will have a lot to do with how late 2023 and early 2024 have gone.
The Draw: Right-click/Open the link in a new tab for the draw for the 2024 Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters
Jannik Sinner's Recent Matches and Results
Sinner had a bye through the first round in Monte-Carlo. In the last two rounds, he has defeated Sebastian Korda and Jan-Lennard Struff. Sinner did not have much trouble with either player, especially Korda, who Sinner beat 6-1, 6-2.
In his previous tournament entry, Sinner claimed a title in Miami. He had no troubles with Grigor Dimitrov in the final. The Italian and World No. 2 still just has one loss this season. He is the No. 1 player on year-to-date rankings and his return game on clay is also top-notch.
Holger Rune's Recent Matches and Results
Rune has opened his clay-court season with two wins. He beat Sumit Nagal in three sets and then defeated Grigor Dimitrov in three sets. In the last round, the match lasted 35 games and went to a third-set tiebreaker. Rune, despite winning the match, won fewer points. He won two tiebreakers but lost the middle set at 3-6.
Back at the two recent Masters Series events in the USA, Rune was an early casualty at the Miami Masters, losing to Fabian Marozsan. The Danish player did okay in the Indian Wells draw. Lately, it has taken pretty good players to beat Rune. His last bad loss was back on the Australian Open, where he fell to Arthur Cazaux early. But he is still lacking a really convincing result in his entries over the last several months.
In 2023, Rune was a dangerous player on clay. He made the 2023 French Open quarters, Rune made the Rome final, and he also made the Monte-Carlo final. Furthermore, Rune won ATP Munich outright last season, a low-tiered tournament. He has not been great over the last several months but bettors should note that this is a strong clay-court player going up against Sinner.
Rune vs Sinner prediction: Rune +4.5 games
At +500, I can understand why bettors would want to take a shot at Rune. However, Sinner just has not shown a crack in the armor with his two strong wins thus far this week in Monte-Carlo.
If you are backing Rune, I think you are doing it thinking that he should be considered an underdog but not a heavy one. Someone might put Rune at shorter odds than just +500 on the basis of his winning record against Sinner, including a win at Monte Carlo last season.
Some players see their fortunes change when the tour switches from hard court to cement. I would not be surprised if Rune is one of them based on what he accomplished last season.
I think bettors should take Rune on game handicaps. I thought he would come in at just +3.5, however, bet365 has him at +4.5. Furthermore, there are plus odds available at +110 (bet365).
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