Jannik Sinner will face Daniil Medvedev at the 2024 Australian Open. Their match will be the championship match for men's singles in the Grand Slam tournament. The World No. 1 ranking is not in the line in the match. After the tournament, Medvedev will be either the No. 2 or No. 3. Meanwhile, Sinner can do no better than the World No. 4 with the direct result of the men's final. But if Medvedev, who is a +250 (bet365) underdog, should win, then he would only be 420 points behind Djokovic for the top spot. My Sinner vs Medvedev prediction is that the title will go to the former player in four sets or fewer.
Schedule of Play: Right-click/Open in the New Tab to check match times: subject to change
Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev Head-to-Head Series
The Sinner vs Medvedev h2h is 3-6 in favor of the latter player. However, bettors will have to take the overall head-to-head series lightly. Sinner has come on strong in the series' recent matches. He is only 22 years old while Medvedev will turn 28 in February. Some of their early matches were played while Sinner was still developing. All three of Sinner's wins have come in their three most recent matches.
In particular, bettors should note that Sinner beat Medvedev in two finals in the fall of 2023. Sinner won the Beijing final in straight sets and the Vienna final in three sets. They also met at the Tour Finals, where Sinner won in three sets again. Those were all indoor events but Sinner's amazing form in Melbourne Park over the last two weeks shows that the change in conditions shouldn't matter.
Sinner is in the final having dropped on set. That was to Novak Djokovic in the last round and Sinner had a set point in the set. Sinner's draw has not been easy in terms of opponent talent and yet he is 18-1 on sets played. While the ATP rankings are based on the last 52 weeks of results, if you went with a "man of the moment" then Sinner is playing better than anyone in the world right now.
Medvedev has dropped eight sets en route to the final -- which is a lot. He has played the maximum 10 sets in the last two rounds, going five each against Hubert Hurkacz and Alexander Zverev. Medvedev has so much court time on his legs in recent matches, that you have to wonder if he will be at 100% for the championship match. If he is at 100%, then he probably would still lose as I don't think he's at the same level as Sinner.
The Draw: Right-click/Open in the New Tab for the draw for the Melbourne Park 2024
Sinner vs Medvedev Prediction: Sinner to win
For betting tips, I am not looking past the moneyline. I don't see a problem with -275 on Sinner (bet365). For true odds, I would put him at about -700.
Bettors looking at the straight sets win should be worried about the first set more than anything. Sinner is in his first Grand Slam final. There should be some nerves but he did just beat Djokovic. Having done that, he will feel like he can do anything. Still, if he surrenders an early break due to nerves, then Medvedev could defend that.
Sinner should be the fresher player in the late sets. In addition to having won more efficiently in the recent rounds, Sinner is much younger than Medvedev.
The only perspective I can take on Medvedev winning is his experience advantage. He has won a Grand Slam final before and finished runner-up in others. However, I don't think Sinner will be phased at all. Medvedev NOT to win two sets is the best bet for this match at -138 (bet365). That's 3-0 or 3-1 for Sinner, which has applied to all six of his matches so far.
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