Ben Shelton is in the thick of things in the 2024 ATP Acapulco draw. He will face Casper Ruud in an upcoming quarterfinal match at the 2024 Mexican Open. Ruud has come in as a small favorite at -138 but there is a chance that the Norwegian is tiring following a condensed schedule for matches lately. Perhaps it's Shelton that should be considered a small favorite in the match but the American has not been convincing this season so far. My Shelton vs Ruud prediction focuses on the latter player and a tennis prop bet.
Schedule of Play: Right-click/Open in the New Tab to check match times: subject to change
Ben Shelton vs Casper Ruud Head-to-Head Series
The Shelton vs Ruud h2h is 1-1. The two players are also dead even on sets played at 2-2. Ruud won a clay-court match between the players in Barcelona last season. Meanwhile, Shelton won a match in Cincinnati in 2022. That means that Shelton has won the only hardcourt match between the two players and it was a straight-sets victory.
The Draw: Right-click/Open in the New Tab for the draw for the 2024 Mexican Open
Ben Shelton's Recent Tennis Results
Shelton has worked to get into the quarterfinals. Both of his earlier opponents pushed the American to three-set results. They were Daniel Evans and Matteo Arnaldi respectively, two players Shelton likely would have handled more efficiently if he was playing his best tennis. After a disappointing result at the Australian Open and in Dallas, we are still waiting for Shelton to showcase his skills in the 2024 ATP season.
Casper Ruud's Recent Tennis Results
Ruud has been playing well for the last two weeks. At the current event in Acapulco, he is 4-1 on sets played through Dusan Lajovic and Christopher Eubanks. Eubanks was able to take a set off of Ruud while the game handicap of +4.5 went to Lajovic in the last round.
Ruud was in the Los Cabos final last week, a match he lost to Jordan Thompson. The upcoming match against Shelton will be Ruud's 7th since February 21st. That is a condensed schedule but Ruud is also the World No. 11. Players ranked that high often can keep winning matches even against better-rested opponents. Furthermore, five of Ruud's recent matches ended in straight sets so he hasn't faced any marathon matches.
Shelton vs Ruud Prediction: Ruud OVER 1.5 double faults
What makes me a little nervous about Ruud is that he has not hit a lot of aces. Through the first two rounds, he has just eleven, which is not a good total for five sets of tennis (bet365). If the points aren't quick, then the advantage is to Shelton. He has played fewer matches lately and should be fresher for the physically challenging points or the late stages of a set.
Conversely, Shelton has been nowhere near his best tennis this season. He was much better at the US Open last season and in Tokyo. He does not have a win this season over anyone ranked close to Ruud. Mainly, Shelton is going out of draws before getting to the high-ranked players. After laboring through two matches in Mexico this week, he is hard to have much confidence in.
Tennis Prop: Ruud vs Shelton
Ruud has had a couple of double faults in each of his last two matches. If that is fatigue-related, then it's not something that is going to go away as he advances in the draw. He is at -188 (bet365) to have OVER 1.5 double faults in the upcoming match. Also, against Shelton, there is a chance for a longer match, which could increase the totals in all areas. I would not be surprised to see a lot of games in this match, which would increase the service games for Ruud and the chances for double faults.
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