Donald Trump Betting Odds: 2024 US Presidential Election

2024 US Presidential Election betting favorites. Donald Trump remains the betting favorite amid legal problems.

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Donald Trump, as he has often been over the last several years, was central to American news headlines on Wednesday, December 20th, 2023. Amid ongoing legal battles, the former President of the United States of America remains the betting favorite to win the 2024 US Presidential Election. This is the case even though the Colorado Supreme Court recently disqualified Trump from the state's ballot.

Donald Trump News Today

Fox News headlined on the evening of December 19th, 2023: "Colorado Supreme Court disqualifies Trump from 2024 ballot" (Bill Mears, Adam Sabes/Fox News). The decision, as summarized in the above-linked article, is a result of the activities from January 6th, 2021. That was the date when pro-Trump supporters staged a Capitol riot in defiance of the election results that would ultimately end Trump's first term as president.

Whether there will be a second term for Donald Trump remains to be seen. If you asked the average bettor, the answer might be "yes." But, in American politics, insurrection against election results can disqualify you from running in future elections. Film director Rob Reiner (The Princess Bride) expressed his approval of that with a recent 'tweet' on the matter.

Donald Trump Latest News: Betting Odds

Trump remains the betting favorite with bet365 to win the 2024 US Presidential Election. As of early on December 20th, 2023, Trump is priced at +120 against the field (ie. 6 to 5). While his odds are on the longer side of EVEN odds, they do remain the shortest of all the political players. Here's a look at the other betting favorites at this point.

  1. Donald Trump +120
  2. Joe Biden +200
  3. Nikki Haley +800
  4. Gavin Newsom +1000
  5. Robert Kennedy Jr. +2200
  6. Michelle Obama +2800

On the frivolous side of presidential politics, rapper Kanye West is 200 to 1, former professional wrestler Dwayne Johnson is 150 to 1, and former NFL quarterback Tom Brady is also 150 to 1. Hillary Clinton, who lost to Donald Trump in the 2016 US Presidential Election, is marginally a stronger favorite than Brady or Johnson at 125 to 1.

How Have the Betting Odds Changed in the Last Two Months?

I have been keeping tabs on this market monthly since October. Back in mid-October, Trump was +150 to win the 2024 presidency. That means that his betting odds have shortened amid all of the legal challenges and obstacles that he has faced recently. That is counterintuitive and it would be interesting to know what the perspectives are of the people who bet on Trump to win.

Trump does have a way of depicting himself as an unfair victim of conspiracies that he plans to persevere through. Are bettors buying into this narrative?

Nikki Haley: Gathering Momentum

Nikki Haley has been the big mover in the betting odds over the last couple of months. Back in mid-October, she was 20 to 1 to win the 2024 election, which made her 7th favorite. Now, she is 8 to 1 and the third favorite to win. Haley's political stripe is Republican.

One way of understanding the betting odds on Trump and Haley shortening is simply that bettors, on average, believe that the Republicans are more likely to win the upcoming election than the Democrats. That would lead to their favorites taking in bets while Democratic favorites would see their odds lengthen accordingly.

Joe Biden has drifted a little in the betting odds over the last two months. Meanwhile, Gavin Newsom remains at 10 to 1, which is where he was in mid-October.

By Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=79572332
By Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=79572332

It may be worth pointing out to some readers, that betting odds do not reflect reality in a mathematically sound way. They are food for thought and they pertain to public opinion for certain. However, being the favorite at any point does not guarantee a result.

Recommendation: Nikki Haley's odds are the most likely to shorten in the months ahead.

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