The Duke Blue Devils will face the NC State Wolfpack on Sunday evening. The game will decide the final entrant into the 2024 March Madness Final Four. On Saturday, the Connecticut Huskies advanced to the Final Four, as did the Alabama Crimson Tide. Meanwhile, the Purdue Boilermakers and the Tennessee Volunteers will face one another in the early game on Sunday. Duke is the No. 4 seed in the South Region while the Wolfpack are the No. 11 seed. The Blue Devils enter the day as -7.0 favorites (bet365). My Duke vs NC State prediction is that the Wolfpack will win, at least with the help of their handicap.
NCAAB Matchup: Blue Devils vs Wolfpack
Game time: 5:05 PM ET
Duke favored: -7.0 at -110 (bet365)
Men's Basketball Championship - South Region - Elite 8
Venue: American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas
The Duke Blue Devils have made the Final Four seventeen times. They will be looking for their 18th appearance on Sunday. Their last appearance was in 2022, which was the end of the Mike Krzyzewski era. Last year, Jon Scheyer made the Elite Eight in his debut season. That appearance is likely looming large right now as he tries to prepare his team for Sunday's game.
The NC State Wolfpack has been to the Final Four three times. However, they have not made it that far since 1983. This is also the team's first appearance in the Elite 8 since 1986.
Duke Blue Devils: Recent Games
Duke is into the Elite Eight through Vermont, James Madison, and Houston. The margins of victory were 17, 38, and 3 respectively. Houston was the No. 1 seed in the South Region.
Before the start of the national tournament, Duke lost in their conference quarterfinals. It's this result that should have some scratching their heads as to the size of the spread in this game. Duke enters as -7.0 favorites despite losing to NC State in the ACC quarters by 5. There's a 12-point gap between the result of that game and the spread for the one upcoming. Duke also lost their final regular season game to North Carolina. They did not look razor-sharp entering the March Madness draw, however, they are 27-8 overall.
NC State Wolfpack: Recent Games
The Wolfpack are into the Elite 8 after seemingly turning things on only because it was playoff time. Heading into the conference playoffs, they had lost four straight, they had lost 7 of 9, and they had lost 10 of 14. Since the team entered the conference playoffs on March 12th, they have gone 8-0 with wins over Duke and North Carolina in the ACC tournament. The Wolfpack also beat 2-seeded Marquette in the Sweet 16.
Duke vs NC State Prediction
Bettors should not be looking at NC State's seed. They are much better than an 11 seed and they were before the tournament started. Any team that wins the ACC tournament shouldn't be viewed as worse than a 7-seed.
I am taking Duke's win over Houston pretty lightly. I'm not surprised that a Kelvin Sampson team flopped in the Big Dance. My recommendation in the last round was on Duke for moneyline and handicap.
Did the Blue Devils lose to NC State in the ACC tournament because they were caught off guard? If that's the case, then it won't happen again. However, I think NC State has elevated at the right time. They have a lot of seniors and juniors on the team. In college basketball, experience is precious and the Wolfpack have a lot of it. I am expecting a polished and determined team because of all the upperclassmen.
My recommendation is to take the points on NC State in this one at +7.0 (bet365). I can't see Duke reversing a 5-point loss from a couple of weeks ago to an 8-or-more spread.
