The NBA regular season is coming down to the home stretch. Heading into March 12th, a lot of teams only have about 17-19 games left in their regular-season schedules. Those are enough games to make a run at making the playoffs, the play-in tournament, or improving seeds. But the time has arrived for teams who have struggled this season to start performing. Immediately after the All-Star break, I noted the betting odds for NBA title futures. At that time, the Boston Celtics were the favorites to win the NBA title -- and they remain there. However, the team has shortened just a little bit as per the most recent odds in NBA futures (bet365).
Boston Celtics: +225 to win the NBA title (2024 NBA title odds)
The Boston Celtics had an NBA-best 43 wins heading into the All-Star break. Overall, they had gone 43-12. According to the standings heading into March 11th, 2024, Boston is now 49-14 with a game on Monday night against Portland.
Nothing is too surprising regarding the Celtics' and their season so far. Many pundits had them as the NBA favorites during the NBA's preseason and even during the offseason. They were the No. 1 team in bet365's NBA futures as teams resumed play in February after the break. Here's a look at the betting odds for the top eight favorites to win the 2024 NBA title. Historical odds from weeks now in the past can be accessed a little lower down (all odds from bet365).
For sports-betting terminology, "drifting" means a team's odds have gotten longer. Meanwhile, "shortening" means the opposite.
NBA title betting odds as of March 11th, 2024
- Boston Celtics, +225 (held relative to last week)
- Denver Nuggets, +350 (shortened from +450 from last week)
- LA Clippers, +450 (shortened from +500 a week ago)
- Milwaukee Bucks, +700 (no change)
- Phoenix Suns, +1600 (lengthened from +1400 last week)
- Minnesota Timberwolves, +2000 (no change)
- OKC Thunder, +2000 (no change)
- Miami Heat and NY Knicks +2500 (odds not noted last week)
The team that fell out of the top eight for betting favorites is the Cleveland Cavaliers. They dropped from +2200 to +2800 in NBA title futures. The Cavaliers have had a lot of injuries lately, including in their starting lineup.
The Nuggets shortened from +450 to +350. That might not look like much but it presumably means that they have taken in some bets. Heading into their Monday night game against Toronto, Denver has gone 8-1 in their last nine matches.
Western Conference Top Teams Considered Long Shots
One anomaly between the betting odds and the standings has to do with the Western Conference. The OKC Thunder, perhaps tenuously, is the top seed in the conference. However, they are not among the top teams in the betting odds.
The LA Clippers have come on strong for several weeks but have stalled a little in recent games, going 5-5 in their last ten. Meanwhile, Phoenix is still is among the betting favorites for the NBA title, despite a current low seed in the playoffs that would have them facing an early road series.
For the time being, I am going to hold on to my NBA Finals prediction of the LA Clippers beating the Boston Celtics in the finals. However, I would like to see more life out of LA in the upcoming week.
Historical Odds in the 2024 NBA Title Market
The following odds are from February 22nd, 2024
- Boston Celtics, +250
- Denver Nuggets, +425
- LA Clippers, +550
- Milwaukee Bucks, +600
- Phoenix Suns, +1400
- Minnesota Timberwolves, +2000
- New York Knicks, +2000
- OKC Thunder, +2000
The following odds are from February 28th, 2024.
- Boston Celtics, +250
- Denver Nuggets, +450 (drifted)
- LA Clippers, +500 (shortened)
- Milwaukee Bucks, +650 (drifted)
- Phoenix Suns, +1400
- Minnesota Timberwolves, +2000
- New York Knicks, +2000
- OKC Thunder, +2000
Note: Content below this line was written in February 2024
Milwaukee to drift in NBA futures?
A week ago, I felt that one team that could start drifting was Milwaukee. They did not look like they were in sync prior to the break. However, the Bucks have opened their post-All-Star break campaign with three wins, including a win over the Minnesota Timberwolves. Milwaukee has, in fact, drifted a little in the betting odds but you have to wonder if they will take in some bets in the days or week ahead. This is a team that would really benefit with the No. 2 seed in the East as they are not a good team on the road. The two-seed would have home-court advantage through two rounds.
Golden State Warriors: Not Among the Betting Favorites
One team that was coming on strong before the All-Star break was Golden State. They sit tenth in the west as play resumed and would still need the help of the play-in tournament to get into the field of 16, if the playoffs started today. Golden State, who now sits 9th in the west, is way out at 35 to 1 on bet365's futures. That means that they have taken some bets in recently as they were 40 to 1 a week ago.
With a pretty clear depth chart as play resumes, Golden State can't be considered to be that long. They should be among the contingent of teams that are at about 20 to 1.
2024 NBA Title Odds: Predicted Finals
But my prediction for the 2024 NBA Finals is that the LA Clippers will beat the Boston Celtics. That's not exactly going out on a limb but I don't think the NBA playoffs is the place to do that.
The NBA does not produce a ton of major upsets. Last season was a major anomaly to see one of the No. 8 seeds in the NBA Finals. But even then, the Miami Heat did not win and they had little against the Denver Nuggets in the finals, losing in five games.
Only high seeds have won the NBA playoff tournament outright in recent seasons. You have to be seeded 1-3 in one of the conferences to hope to win the NBA title, history has shown.
To find a team worse than a three-seed in the NBA playoffs in either conference that won the title, you have to go back to the 1995 NBA playoffs when the West's 6th-seeded Houston Rockets won. Even that Houston team was a bit different because they had won the title in the previous season.
The lesson there is just not to get fancy with the NBA title picks. If you don't have your selection finishing first, second, or third in the regular season conference standings, save your bet and don't pick them to win the title. Even with Golden State, my recommendation would be each-way betting at 1-2, 1/2, so you get half odds on a runner-up finish.
