The Texas Rangers and the Houston Astros will contest the 2023 American League Championship Series. Game 1 of the series will go on Saturday night at 8:15 PM ET. The Astros, by virtue of their higher seed, will be the home team in the series. They are coming off of an efficient ALDS, where they eliminated the Minnesota Twins 3-1. The Astros are also the betting favorites to win the 2023 ALCS with Texas coming in as +120 underdogs (bet365). My Rangers vs Astros prediction is that the Astros will win this series to advance to the Fall Classic.
Rangers vs Astros prediction: AL West Division foes collide
These two teams come out of the AL West division. As divisional rivals, there is an extensive history between the two clubs from this past season.
On head-to-heads after the All-Star break, the Astros posted a record of 5-1 against Texas. In three games that the two teams played in early September, Houston posted a sweep. This series was particularly discrediting to the Texas Rangers at the time. Not only did Houston sweep them from September 4th to 6th, but the Astros outscored the Rangers 39-10 in the three games combined.
Head-to-head series from the regular season: 2023 ALCS preview
In the first half of the season, these two teams met seven times. Texas went just 3-4 in those games. On the whole season, the Astros were clearly better from a head-to-head perspective. They went 9-4 against Texas this regular season -- a trend that is hard to bet against.
At first glance, bettors should be happy to have the Astros at odds of -140 to win this series. When it comes to placing a futures bet on the 2023 ALCS, to what extent do bettors have to look beyond the head-to-head matchups? It could be noted that Texas has played like a team possessed in recent games.
Surely, Texas will gain some backers for how they have performed in the playoffs so far. They are 5-0, quickly dispatching both the Tampa Bay Rays and the Baltimore Orioles. On run differential, the Rangers are +20 in the postseason. They also won most of their games on the road -- which was the team's weakness in the regular season.
2023 ALCS Betting Recommendation
Yet, Houston had little trouble with the Minnesota Twins. Also, the Astros were the better team down the stretch of the regular season. They stole the AL West by winning five of their last six games, a result that has earned them the home-field advantage in the 2023 ALCS.
I think when you look at this series, you could be guilty of overanalyzing it. That 9-4 head-to-head record is a great reason to be backing the Astros at -140 to win the series. I thought, before consulting the odds, that the Astros would be much more guarded and out at -180 or a little shorter.
Taking the Astros at -140 is my betting recommendation for this upcoming series with Game 1 on Saturday night. For those that want to go for something, take Houston to win exactly 4-2 in this series at odds of +375 (bet365).
