Jacob Misiorowski struggles but Brewers secure win over Cubs

MLB Jacob Misiorowski struggles but Brewers secure win over Cubs

By Nemanja Milosavljević

September 3, 2026 • 12:04 AM EDT

Updated 10 days ago

Jacob Misiorowski struggles but Brewers secure win over Cubs

Jacob Misiorowski left the mound at Wrigley Field on Wednesday after just four innings, giving up five earned runs to the Chicago Cubs. That figure ties his career worst, and it could’ve been a whole lot worse for Milwaukee bettors if the bullpen and bats hadn’t picked up the slack for a 9-5 Brewers win. But if you’re paying attention to how Misiorowski performs down the stretch—and you should be, given the Brewers are hunting a top playoff seed—there’s real reason to look deeper into what happened than just the final scoreline.

Why does it matter for you as a bettor? We’re not just talking about one bad night here. The 24-year-old ace’s meltdown is only the second time in his career he’s allowed five earned runs, flashing the same stress signs he showed in a rough July 2025 start against the Mets. According to Yahoo Sports, what happened on Wednesday goes past fatigue narratives. Instead, it exposes risk factors tied to usage and pitch selection that could impact value on Brewers lines moving forward.

Let’s break down the numbers. Misiorowski’s arm velocity? Still elite. His fastball sat at a blazing 100.9 mph, actually a tick up from his season mark, with five pitches clocked at 102 or better. There was zero drop-off inning to inning, crushing the “tired arm” excuse. This isn’t the classic dead-arm September spiral we’re used to seeing in young pitchers who log heavy innings.

So what’s up? Misiorowski barely leaned on his best weapon. He threw his fastball just 48 percent of the time, when his usual average is about 64 percent. Instead, he overused his cutter, pushing it up to 36 percent from his regular 14 percent. On the fastballs he did throw, only 39 percent were strikes, leading to four costly walks. It wasn’t batters catching up to him; it was a guy with his full arsenal basically refusing to throw it—or not being able to control it. That’s a different red flag entirely.

Why the pitch mix matters for bettors

When you see a dominant arm like Misiorowski’s suddenly go soft on his bread-and-butter fastball, you have to ask: is this injury, mechanics, or just a tactical decision? If the worries are mechanical or mental, oddsmakers won’t adjust lines the same way as they would for injury. But if this trend sticks, it’s a sign for more volatility in his next starts. That means evaluating prop bets—strikeouts, earned runs, walks—gets trickier.

Key developments from this start

Fastball usage plummeted from 64% to 48%—a major deviation from norms
Velocity held steady or even improved (average 100.9 mph, touched 102+)
Struggled to throw the fastball for strikes, landing just 39% in the zone
Increased cutter usage to nearly 3x his seasonal average
Pulled after just four innings, tied career high with five earned runs
Brewers offense and bullpen masked the poor outing with a comeback win

Is workload catching up with Misiorowski?

Misiorowski is already up to 155 innings pitched this season, blowing past last year’s total of about 129. That’s double the pitches from his rookie year, with another month left. Milwaukee floated a cautious approach midseason, scratching him once for arm fatigue, but have leaned on him every five days since mid-August with no clear limit.

We saw in his rookie year: dominant start, quick All-Star nod, then a collapse with a 5.89 ERA for the rest of the stretch. The organizational plan this year was to manage him smarter. But with September looming and October dreams on the line, every start brings up the workload question—and no one’s sure if Wednesday was just a blip or the start of another late-season slide.

What’s the real betting question?

If next time out his fastball usage rebounds, this was probably just one of those weird outings every pitcher gets. If the cutter keeps creeping up and he can’t spot his fastball, then you’ve got to start adjusting any Brewers risk calculus, especially on games he starts.

Key takeaways for bettors

Five earned runs ties Misiorowski’s career high and is a statistical alarm bell, not just a fluke
Velocity spike means no clear injury, but command problems and pitch mix are just as worrying
Fastball usage dropping below 50% signals potential mechanical or mental issue
Brewers bullpen bailed him out—don’t expect that payoff to always come through
Milwaukee’s inconsistent handling of a 24-year-old ace is a major betting factor for September
Past late-season struggles are a trend to monitor, especially for strikeout and earned run props
Next start will give huge insight: if pitch mix and control are off again, fade his lines
Look for updates on innings or pitch-count limits as Brewers aim for playoff seeding

More coverage: more MLB headlines, our MLB betting analysis and MLB picks and predictions.

Frequently Asked Questions

Misiorowski allowed five earned runs in four innings, tying his career high for most earned runs given up in an MLB game.

No, velocity readings showed his fastball held steady or improved, averaging 100.9 mph with several pitches over 102. Fatigue wasn’t the issue Wednesday.

He threw his fastball only 48% of the time, far lower than his season average of 64%, and relied on his cutter three times more than usual.

It’s rare but not unprecedented. He allowed five runs in a 2025 outing against the Mets, which was his first career loss.

The approach has been inconsistent. They were cautious early, but by late August, had stopped limiting his pitch counts and let him start regularly.

If his pitch mix returns to normal, it could be a fluke. But if command and fastball usage stay off, there’s reason to be concerned for Brewers backers.

Recent trends suggest more volatility around Misiorowski’s starts, so review pitch usage and command carefully before betting on his strikeout or run-related props.