By Pritish Ganguly

August 26, 2026 • 1:03 AM EDT

Updated 9 days ago

Ryan Waldschmidt hit a pinch-hit walk-off two-run home run off the Chicago Cubs’ closer in the bottom of the 9th inning to give the Arizona Diamondbacks a 5-4 win at Chase Field on Monday, August 25, 2026.

That’s the headline. Here’s what it actually means for your bets: Chicago just used its most trusted late-inning arm in a blown save, and that arm likely isn’t available tonight. The Cubs are heading into Game 2 with a bullpen that already has five legitimate contributors on the injured list, Porter Hodge (Tommy John, season-ending), Hunter Harvey (triceps, season-likely), Gavin Hollowell (shoulder IL), Phil Maton (60-day IL), and Riley Martin (elbow, season-ending). Add Ben Brown (neck IL) to that list. Now subtract the closer who threw in a high-leverage 9th. Craig Counsell has almost no margin left.

Arizona manager Torey Lovullo confirmed post-game that Jordan Lawlar returns to the starting lineup for Game 2. Lawlar had been listed Day-To-Day, with a return date of August 26 in the live injury data, Lovullo’s comment simply made it official. That’s a real lineup upgrade for a Diamondbacks team that went into Monday’s game without him and still found a way to win. The opening Game 2 line, likely set before these developments fully landed, is probably pricing Chicago’s record (76-56) and their top-two NL offense. It’s not fully pricing a depleted bullpen on the road against a lineup that just got deeper.

Arizona is 69-63, sitting 7th in the NL wild card race at 30.2% playoff odds. Monday’s win gained them a game on both the San Diego Padres and the Philadelphia Phillies. The stakes don’t get more real than this for a team that needed every out of that walk-off.

The Cubs’ Bullpen Numbers Tell You Exactly What to Bet

Related: Brewers’ Rally Stalls in Extra-Inning Chaos at Mets

Chicago is 76-56 and has a legitimate top-two NL offense. On paper, they’re the better team. But on August 26, at Chase Field, they’re going to need to manufacture outs with secondary relievers against a crowd and a lineup riding a walk-off high. That’s not a paper argument, it’s a practical one.

The Cubs are 5-5 in their last 10 games. Arizona is also 5-5. These teams are not separated by recent form. The separation is on the season record, and that record reflects roster depth Chicago no longer has in the bullpen. When both teams’ relief corps are compromised, home field becomes a real factor. Chase Field tilts toward Arizona.

Brandon Pfaadt went 6.2 innings Monday and allowed four runs, so Arizona’s bullpen also worked. But the Diamondbacks did not burn a closer role in a blown save. That asymmetry is the bet.

Clay Holmes was outstanding for Chicago, seven innings, dominant. He is not available on short rest for Game 2. So the question isn’t whether the Cubs have a starter for tonight; they’ll line someone up. The question is what happens when Chicago needs the 7th, 8th, and 9th inning covered by a bullpen that’s already running on fumes.

The Over Has a Case Too, Here’s Why

Both teams are entering Game 2 with thin bullpen options. Arizona’s own rotation is battered: Michael Soroka just went to the IL (shoulder), Zac Gallen is on the IL, and Matt Nelson is on the IL. The Game 2 Arizona starter is an open question. If it’s a back-of-rotation arm, runs become available early on both sides.

An expected total of around 8.5 becomes more interesting when you factor in: (1) a Cubs bullpen that will need to stretch secondary arms deep into the game, (2) an Arizona starter who may not survive five innings, and (3) a home lineup that now includes Lawlar and is playing with genuine postseason urgency. The over is a secondary play, but it’s a real one if Arizona names a depth starter.

One market to avoid: the Cubs run line at -1.5. Covering a run and a half on the road with the thinest bullpen in this series is a high-risk proposition. Even if Chicago wins outright, the path to a two-run margin runs through relievers who may not be there.

“Jordan’s going to be in the lineup tomorrow. He’s ready to go.”Torey Lovullo, Arizona Diamondbacks manager

Key Developments

• Ryan Waldschmidt hit a pinch-hit walk-off two-run homer off the Cubs’ closer in the 9th inning to win 5-4: Chicago’s most trusted late-inning arm is likely unavailable or limited for Game 2, which is the single biggest edge in this series right now.
• The Cubs have at least six relievers on the injured list, including three with season-ending injuries: their effective bullpen depth for Game 2 is genuinely thin, making the Cubs run line at -1.5 a market to fade.
• Jordan Lawlar is confirmed in Arizona’s lineup for Game 2 per Lovullo post-game, corroborated by a live return date of August 26 in injury data: an uncaptured lineup upgrade that opening odds may not reflect.
• Arizona’s walk-off win gained a game on both the Padres and the Phillies in the NL wild card race: maximum standings value from a single result, adding real urgency to how the Diamondbacks approach Game 2 at home.
• Arizona’s own rotation is depleted (Soroka, Gallen, Nelson all on IL): the Game 2 starter for Arizona is uncertain, which supports the over if a depth arm is named and both bullpens are stretched early.
• Clay Holmes went seven dominant innings for Chicago on Monday: he is not available for Game 2, meaning the Cubs’ starting pitching situation is actually the separate concern from bullpen depth, both need monitoring before first pitch.

The Firm Call

I’m on the Arizona Diamondbacks moneyline for Game 2 on August 26 at Chase Field, but watch the line before you commit full size. If Arizona opens at +100 or better, that’s clear value given Cubs closer depletion, Lawlar’s confirmed return, and home-field parity. If the market has already moved to -115 or shorter for Chicago, the edge tightens, reduce size accordingly. The secondary play is Game 2 total OVER (target ~8.5) if Arizona names a depth starter, which becomes almost certain given their rotation injuries. Fade the Cubs run line at -1.5 regardless of where the moneyline sits: covering 1.5 runs on the road with a compromised bullpen is a bet that requires too many things to go right for Chicago. The full record and updated Game 2 pick are on the Arizona Diamondbacks picks and lines.

This article was produced with AI assistance by Pritish Ganguly, with editorial standards and betting methodology overseen by Richard Gale (senior gambling industry executive, ThePicks founder), and reviewed by the ThePicks editorial team. All statistics sourced from live BDL API data and verified source material. All betting opinions are those of ThePicks analysts.

https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/holy-waldschmidt-dbacks-5-cubs-045341541.html

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