Alright, so you want to get into sports betting but the idea of picking winners and losers feels like a coin flip. I get it. That’s where player props betting come in, and frankly, it’s where the smart money is heading.
Think of it like this: you already know fantasy football. You know what it feels like to scream at the TV for one more catch. That’s a player prop. It’s betting on a player’s individual performance, not the final score. And because it’s based on stats, it’s a bet you can actually research and find an edge on.
This is my guide to getting started. I’m going to show you what they are, how they work, and how we find value.
Look, a player prop is just a bet on a player’s stat line. That’s it. You’re not betting on the team to win. You’re betting on whether a specific player will achieve something.
So instead of betting on the Kansas City Chiefs, you’re betting on Patrick Mahomes to throw for Over or Under 285.5 passing yards. If you take the Over and he throws for 290, you cash your ticket. I don’t care if the Chiefs win by 30 or lose by 50. Mahomes did his job, and we won our bet. That’s why this is so powerful—you can win even when your team loses.
When you look at a prop, you’ll see two numbers: the stat line and the odds. The odds are usually around -115, and that’s the “juice” or “vig”—the cut the sportsbook takes.
For example:
Christian McCaffrey Over 85.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Christian McCaffrey Under 85.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
So what does that “-115” mean? It’s simple. You have to bet $115 to win $100. If McCaffrey gets 86 yards, the Over hits. If he gets 85, the Under hits. It’s that straightforward.
There are a ton of props out there, but they all boil down to three basic types. Once you know these, you can bet on anything.
This is your bread and butter. The sportsbook sets a number for a stat, and you bet on whether the player will get over or under it. It’s the purest test of your research.
Examples:
Jayson Tatum Over/Under 27.5 Points
Shohei Ohtani Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases
Connor McDavid Over/Under 0.5 Assists
Yes/No Props
These are basically “will it happen?” bets. They’re great for when you have a strong feeling about a specific event in the game.
Examples:
Will Tyreek Hill Score a Touchdown? (Yes/No)
Will LeBron James Record a Double-Double? (Yes/No)
This is a fun one. The books will pit two players against each other and you just have to pick which one will perform better in a specific category.
Example:
Who will have more Receiving Yards: Justin Jefferson or Ja’Marr Chase?
Advanced Player Prop Strategies & Guides
Alright, you’ve got the basics. Now you want to find an edge. That’s what we do. Our in-depth guides are where we show our work.
For our detailed NFL process, you need to read our complete guide: How to Research NFL Player Props: A Weekly Checklist
The NBA moves fast, and so do the odds. We break down how to find value here: NBA Player Props Strategy: Finding Value
A “ladder” bet is a high-risk, high-reward play. We explain how it works: What is a Ladder Bet in Player Props?
Let’s be clear: not all sportsbooks are created equal for props. Some have huge variety, others have better odds. Based on our own testing, here are the two we trust the most:
FanDuel Sportsbook: My take is that FanDuel has the best interface for building player prop parlays. Their Same Game Parlay tool is the easiest to use, period. Read our full Fanduel review to get more insight.
DraftKings Sportsbook: We’ve found DraftKings consistently posts its prop lines earlier than anyone else. That gives you a huge advantage to find and bet on a soft line before the rest of the market does. Read our full DraftKings review to get more details.
A push is just a tie. If you bet on a player to score Over/Under 20 points and they score exactly 20, you didn’t win, you didn’t lose. The sportsbook refunds your original bet.
I think they’re the best bet for beginners. You’re already following individual players. This just puts that knowledge to work. It’s a much more logical starting point than trying to figure out a confusing team point spread.
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