By Richard Gale

October 1, 2025 • 10:48 AM EDT

Updated 372 days ago

Once you have established a bankroll and understand the concept of a “unit,” the next step is to choose one of the  betting staking strategies. This is the rulebook that dictates exactly how much you will wager on any given game.

While there are many complex systems, nearly all are based on three core models: Flat Betting, Percentage Staking, and the Kelly Criterion. Understanding each is key to finding a style that suits your risk tolerance and goals.

ThePicks also has a tool in our Premium area of the website, thank can help you model out how each of the betting staking strategies works in real life.

1. The Flat Betting Model: The Foundation of Discipline

What is flat betting? It is the simplest and safest bankroll management strategy. In this model, you bet the exact same amount—typically one unit—on every single wager, regardless of the odds or your confidence level.

• How it Works:
  • Your Bankroll: $1,000
  • Your Unit Size: $10 (1%)
  • Every Bet You Place: Exactly $10.
• Pros:
  • Maximum Safety: It is the best method for protecting your bankroll and surviving long losing streaks.
  • Removes Emotion: There is no decision to be made. You bet one unit, every time.
  • Perfect for Beginners: It builds incredible discipline and is the recommended starting point for all new bettors.
• Cons:
  • Slower Growth: Because you are not pressing your advantage on high-confidence plays, your bankroll will grow more slowly during winning streaks.
  • No Cons: When looking at your betting staking strategies, going slow is not really a con, and certainly we would advise an approach like this with responsible gambling in mind.

2. The Percentage Staking Model: A Dynamic Approach to Betting Staking Strategies

This model, also known as “variable” or “proportional” staking, is a step up in aggression. Your bet size is always a set percentage (e.g., 1%) of your current bankroll, meaning your stake size changes as your bankroll does.

• How it Works:
  • Your Starting Bankroll: $1,000
  • Your Stake: 1%
  • Bet 1: $10 (1% of $1,000). You win. Your new bankroll is $1,010.
  • Bet 2: $10.10 (1% of $1,010). You win. Your new bankroll is $1,020.10.
  • Bet 3: $10.20 (1% of $1,020.10).
• Pros:
  • Accelerated Growth: It naturally compounds your winnings, as your stake size increases when you are winning.
  • In-built Protection: It naturally reduces your stake size when you are losing, protecting your bankroll.
• Cons:
  • Requires Constant Calculation: You must recalculate your stake before every bet.
  • Can Exaggerate Losing Streaks: While the dollar amount of your losses decreases, it can be psychologically difficult to reduce your stake during a losing run.

3. The Kelly Criterion Model: The Advanced Option for Betting Staking Strategies 

The Kelly Criterion is a formula used by professional bettors and investors to determine the optimal stake size based on the perceived “edge” or “value” in a bet. It is the most aggressive and complex of the three models.

• The Formula: (Decimal Odds * Probability of Winning - 1) / (Decimal Odds - 1)
• How it Works: The formula calculates what percentage of your bankroll to stake. If you find a bet at +110 odds (2.10 decimal) that you believe has a 50% chance of winning, the Kelly formula would suggest a stake of 2.5% of your bankroll. If you believe it only has a 45% chance of winning, the formula returns a negative number, meaning it’s a “no bet.”
• Pros:
  • Maximum Growth: When your probability estimates are accurate, the Kelly Criterion is mathematically proven to grow a bankroll faster than any other method.
• Cons:
  • Extremely High Risk: It requires you to be extremely accurate at assessing win probabilities. A small error in your calculation can lead to a dangerously large recommended stake.
  • Not for Beginners: Most professional bettors use a “Fractional Kelly” (e.g., only betting a quarter or half of the recommended stake) to reduce the high variance. This model should only be attempted by experienced bettors with a proven, data-driven method for finding an edge.

Bankroll Management Strategies: Frequently Asked Questions

1. What is flat betting and is it good for beginners?

What is flat betting? It’s a strategy where you bet the exact same amount (e.g., one “unit”) on every single game. It is the single best strategy for beginners because it builds discipline, removes emotion from staking decisions, and is the safest way to protect your bankroll from the inevitable losing streaks.

2. How does percentage of bankroll betting work?

In percentage of bankroll betting, your stake is a fixed percentage (usually 1-2%) of your current bankroll. This means your bet size increases when you win and decreases when you lose. It’s a more dynamic approach that can accelerate growth but requires recalculating your stake for every wager.

3. What is the Kelly Criterion and is it too risky?

The Kelly Criterion explained simply is a formula that calculates the optimal bet size based on the perceived “value” or “edge” you have over the sportsbook’s odds. While it’s mathematically proven to maximize growth, it is extremely high-risk for beginners as it can recommend dangerously large stakes if your probability estimates are inaccurate.

4. What is the main difference between flat vs percentage betting?

The main difference in flat vs percentage betting is how your stake changes. In flat betting, your stake is a fixed dollar amount (e.g., $10) and does not change. In percentage betting, your stake is a percentage of your bankroll, so the dollar amount is dynamic, increasing after wins and decreasing after losses.

5. Can I combine different bankroll management strategies?

Yes, many bettors use a hybrid approach. A common strategy is to use a flat betting model but assign a confidence level to your bets. For example, your “standard” plays are 1 unit, but for your 3-5 most confident plays of the week, you might risk 1.5 or 2 units. This provides a balance between the safety of flat betting and the growth potential of variable staking.