The Miami Dolphins are 5-3 and they are in a battle to get back into contention in the AFC. However, this is a team that was on top of our power rankings after Week 3. Then they took three losses that could be framed in one of two ways: bad injury luck or bad management. It kind of looked like the latter so hopefully, the Dolphins' management learned something. Looking ahead, the Dolphins look like a good value pick.
The Pick: Miami at 12/1 (each way) to win the AFC
But the Dolphins are 5-0 in games where Tua Tagovailoa starts and finishes the game. His excellent play in Week 8 should be earning some bets for the Dolphins to win the AFC championship. Here are the odds on the favorites for that market with bet365.
- Buffalo Bills +130 (13/10)
- Kansas City Chiefs +320 (16/5)
- Baltimore Ravens +800 (8/1)
- Miami Dolphins +1200 (12/1)
Don't back the Bills or Chiefs
The odds on the Bills are way too short. We need to remember how long the season is and how things can peak and dive. When it comes to an ante-post bet that's not going to be paid out for four months, you don't want odds of +130. Too much can go wrong.
Let's say that the Bills make the AFC championship. Chances are you might be able to get odds of about -150 immediately before the start of the game. Taking them at +130 four months out is a bad move. You just aren't getting enough increased value.
The odds on the Chiefs can be passed on pretty easily too. That doesn't mean they won't win but remember, you are assessing things mathematically not with a crystal ball.
The Ravens are the first team that can be looked at seriously. However, Miami beat the Ravens earlier this season. Miami also beat the Bills. Baltimore has some weak showings this season.
The Dolphins were active at the trade deadline
Furthermore, the Dolphins beefed up at the trade deadline. They went out and got defensive help, possibly to account for the loss of their starting safety. Miami also went out and got a second quality running back in Jeff Wilson (Jr.).
The 12-to-1 odds with bet365 are offered with each-way terms. Not every sportsbook offers such terms for a conference championship. The terms are 1-2, 1/2: that means that if Miami makes the conference final and loses, you get half odds (ie. 6 to 1) on the result. If they win the conference championship you get 12-to-1 on half your bet and 6-to-1 on the other half. Basically, the Dolphins hit at 6 to 1 for surviving the divisional round. That's the best bet in this market at this point.
AFC championship betting recommendation
- Miami Dolphins at +1200 (each way at 1-2, 1/2) with bet365
