The Pick: Milwaukee UNDER 53.5 at -160 (bet365)
The Milwaukee Bucks lost another one, losing to the Miami Heat on Saturday in a game that was not close. The Heat, who have generally been playing well recently, put up a sixteen-point spread for the victory, winning 111-95. Giannis Antetokounmpo did not play in the game, however, the Bucks’ problems run deeper than that.
As of January 14th, 2023, the Milwaukee Bucks have a win total of 53.5 (bet365). The odds on the UNDER side of that proposition have been shortened recently. Currently, the UNDER for 53.5 is set at -160 (5/8) with bet365 sportsbook. Bettors should be taking that line still as the Bucks appear to be very overrated.
Milwaukee Bucks win total (bet365): 53.5 (simplified perspective)
- Current winning rate: 62.79%
- Winning rate needed for OVER 53.5: 65.85%
- Difference: -3.06%
- Simplified conclusion: the Bucks are behind their win total projection
If you look at the chart above, then you can see that the Bucks need to maintain at least a 65.85% winning rate over the whole season to beat their win total. That’s what they need to go at least 54-28 this season.
Currently, they are behind that rate as they finished Saturday with a 62.79% win total. They are lagging behind the rate that they need but it’s definitely not a huge gap. That said, you could look at their recent form over the last 3-4 weeks to see something different.
Milwaukee Bucks: Recent Form Alert
- Formerly: 22 – 8 on December 20th, 2022
- Currently: 27 – 16
- Recent form: 5 – 8 since December 20th, 2022
- Recent win rate: 38.46%
- Milwaukee Bucks’ recent form: -27.39% better than what they need
If you look at what has been going on with Milwaukee recently, then they are an emphatic bet not to beat their win total this season. They have won just 5 of their last 13 games. This is a team that is well overrated and it may take some time for them to drop in the standings.
The Bucks do not really have that third player of high quality that other quality NBA teams do have. A lot has been made of Brook Lopez this season and he is a good player. However, there are still a lot of other NBA centers that are better than him. The Bucks have a really long way to go to get to 54 wins this season, the minimum they need to beat 53.5. This is a team that still has a green light for UNDER bets at this point.
Milwaukee Bucks betting recommendation
- Bucks UNDER their win total of 53.5 with bet365 (-160; 5/8)
- Our recent NBA Power Rankings