The Pick: OVER 44.5 at odds of -115 (bet365)
As of January 23rd, 2023, the Miami Heat have a win total of 44.5 (bet365). We looked at this team about a week ago in terms of their win total. At that time, they had a target of 42.5 and we recommended the OVER.
There is still some upside with this NBA team and win-total betting. They look like they can be expected to win between 46 and 49 games this season. Our recommendation is still on the Heat to win more than their target.
Miami Heat win-total (bet365): 44.5 (simplified perspective)
- Current winning rate: 54.17%
- The winning rate needed for OVER 44.5: 54.88%
- Difference: -0.71%
- Simplified conclusion: the Heat are slightly behind their win-total projection
The chart above shows that Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat are basically on par when it comes to making their win total. However, this is a club that has improved over the course of the season. Miami is a better club now than when they started the season. In fact, they made their first appearance in our most recent NBA power rankings. The chart below shows that they have gone +8 for wins over the last two months.
Miami Heat: Recent Form Alert
- Formerly: 7 – 11 on November 22nd, 2022
- Currently: 26 – 22 (overall)
- Recent form: 19 – 11 since November 22nd, 2022
- Recent winning rate: 63.33%
- Miami Heat’s recent form: +8.45% better than what they need
The chart above also shows that the Heat, when judged in terms of their last two months, are playing better than the winning percentage that they need to maintain. They have won more than 63% of their games since November 22nd, a winning rate that is well above the one that they need to maintain to beat their win total.
Miami doesn’t have a huge edge in this market anymore but there’s a chance that this team is a buyer ahead of the trade deadline. A 50-win season is not entirely off the table with this club. Their true win total should be at 47.5, meaning bettors have the green light on OVER 44.5 at this point.
Miami Heat betting recommendation
- Miami Heat OVER 44.5 wins with bet365 at -115 (20/23)
- Our recent NBA Power Rankings