Will Justin Jefferson remain the betting favorite for receiving?

Justin Jefferson entered Week 3 of the current NFL season as the betting favorite to lead the league in receiving yards with bet365 sportsbook. He had an amazing start to the season and regressed in Week 2 amidst tight coverage. In Week 3, his receiving stats were negligible and it seems unlikely that he will remain the betting favorite as the top receiver when the odds update.

Will Ragatz, writing at si.com, had the following to say.

The Lions made a clear, all-out effort to not let Jefferson beat them. They used frequent double teams to help out cornerback Jeff Okudah, who played a good game. Jefferson also failed to come down with a couple catchable passes.

Si.com September 25th, 2022

The Minnesota Vikings, Jefferson’s team, won in Week 3 over the Detroit Lions. Jefferson, for his part, had just three receptions on six targets for 14 yards.

It seems that Jefferson’s explosive Week 1 has done nothing but draw defensive sags his way from defenders. That certainly makes Jefferson a major asset on offense. His presence on the field is opening other things up.

Why Justin Jefferson won’t lead the NFL in receiving

However, Jefferson’s stats are suffering from the double teams. Importantly, it is a team that wins ball games but it’s statistics that matter in betting markets. Receiving for 14 yards is basically a no-show week in the NFL when it comes to contending with the statistical leaders.

The good news is that Minnesota won in Week 3. That means teams looking for a winning formula might have to abandon the constant double-teaming of Jefferson. It will be interesting to see what the oddsmakers have to say for a favorite after Week 3. This is a betting market that we visit weekly so stay tuned.