Denver Nuggets: Injuries and Win Total

The Pick: OVER 56.5 at odds of -110 (bet365)

The Denver Nuggets, who recently made news with Bones Hyland and a trade, enter the All-Star Break with a record of 41-18 in the NBA. That record competes with the league’s best and they are currently the top team in the Western Conference. Their win total is currently 56.5 with bet365 and the UNDER is slightly favored at -120 (5/6). As the bullet points below show, Denver is basically on pace to win 56-57 games.

Denver Nuggets win-total (bet365): 56.5 (simplified perspective)

• Current winning rate: 69.49%
• The winning rate needed for OVER 56.5: 69.51%
• Difference: -0.02%

Denver enters the break in need of some time off. Jamal Murray is out (knee) and so is Aaron Gordon (ribs). Those are two starting players so Denver is among the teams that probably didn’t mind the week off. However, they did head into the All-Star break in very good form. Over about the last month and a half, Denver has gone 17-5.

Denver Nuggets: Recent Form Alert

• Formerly: 24 – 13 on January 4th, 2023
• Currently: 41 – 18 (overall)
• Recent form: 17 – 5 since January 4th, 2023
• Recent winning rate: 77.27%
• Denver Nuggets’ recent form: 7.76% compared to what they need overall

Their recent form is better than the winning rate that they need to maintain in order to beat the OVER. However, bettors going with Denver at this point could bump into some trouble. The Nuggets have opened up a five-game lead for the top spot in the conference. If they maintain a healthy lead, then they might be resting starters when the final week of the regular season comes around.

Denver Nuggets: Looking Ahead

• Games remaining (regular season): 23
• Minimum overall record needed for OVER to hit: 57 – 25
• Summary: Denver needs 16 wins in their remaining schedule to beat their win total

Denver has late-season games against Phoenix, Utah, and Sacramento. Don’t be surprised if the Nuggets are in a position where they don’t need wins when those games are played. That scenario arises when a team clinches a fixed playoff destiny and chooses to rest its starters, something good coaches do in a lot of professional sports leagues.

Accordingly, the Nuggets could go 0-3 in these games as they line things up for the playoffs. If you take the OVER, then you could be staring at Denver’s scrubs having to win the bet for you.

This isn’t a market with the clearest of value at this point in the season. Bettors should steer clear of this team or cautiously take the UNDER at 56.5.

Further reading: NBA Power Rankings